Modelling of snow cover area in relation with climatic variability over the Sind basin of Kashmir Himalayas (2002–2022)

Abstract

The Snow Cover Area (SCA) of the Kashmir Himalayas is vital for environmental, hydrological, and socio-economic stability, influencing water management, agriculture, hydroelectric power, biodiversity, and tourism. This study evaluates the monthly, seasonal, and annual SCA of the Sind basin (2002–2022) using MODIS Terra (MOD10A2) data and NASA POWER PROJECT climate data, employing Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis to examine climatic sensitivities. The average annual SCA is 57.94% (895.75 km²), with a statistically insignificant increase of 0.16% per year. Seasonal SCA averages are 86.12% in winter, 70.72% in spring, 24.15% in summer, and 49.13% in autumn. Significant trends include a winter increase of 0.37% per year and a spring decline of −0.28% per year. Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis results indicated that Annual precipitation shows a statistically significant rise (Sen's slope: +25.61 mm/year). While temperature negatively correlates with annual SCA (≤ −0.77 in all years during 2002-2022), highlighting rising temperatures' detrimental effects on snow retention. A positive correlation of SCA with precipitation indicates (≥0.69 in all years during 2002-2022) that increased precipitation could partially offset snow cover loss. These findings underscore snow cover's sensitivity to climate variability and the critical need for adaptive management strategies. With snow resources essential for water security and ecosystem stability, the study provides valuable insights for regional climate adaptation and policy development, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change impacts on the fragile Himalayan environment.