Assessing the impact of land surface temperature on off-seasonal precipitation in Surat city at the regional level

Abstract

In the context of advancing urbanization, cities grapple with escalating challenges such as heightened and unpredictable occurrences of heatwaves and increased precipitation, resulting in recurrent issues like urban heat islands, waterlogging, water pollution, and floods. Particularly in densely populated countries like India, this has become a pressing concern due to a surge in mortality and morbidity rates linked to the amplified frequency of heat and off-season precipitation events. Given that the impacts of rising temperatures and precipitation exhibit a regional character, a comprehensive analysis at the urban scale is impractical. Consequently, this research focuses on a 75 km buffer surrounding Surat city. The study delves into the spatial patterns and influences of land surface temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index on off season precipitation across the decades from 1991 to 2021, considering both summer and winter seasons to capture the unpredictable nature of the events. Additionally, the research examines correlations among these parameters and delineation of vulnerable areas to heightened off-season precipitation events. In winter, the effect of LST on precipitation is localized, resulting in a positive correlation. In contrast, during summer, the influence of LST on precipitation is not localized, leading to a negative correlation. These findings provide valuable insights for planners, enabling the formulation of regionally tailored policies that address vulnerabilities beyond urban boundaries.