Modeling the efficacy of Wolbachia in malaria control with limited public health resources

Abstract

Malaria has remained a global health burden over the past few decades. Remote regions with limited healthcare resources are significant contributors to malaria cases worldwide. In the present study, we propose a deterministic compartmental model to explore the dynamics of malaria transmission in the presence of Wolbachia. The nonlinear recovery rate is incorporated to elucidate the impact of available public healthcare resources. The analytical result of the model exhibits the existence of multiple malaria-present endemic equilibria. We observe the coexistence of a malaria-present endemic equilibria with a stable malaria-free equilibria. Sensitivity analysis is performed to explore the relative importance of different parameters. Additionally, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation exists in the proposed model. Numerical simulation validates the analytical results of the model and confirms the existence of backward bifurcation. We demonstrate the inhibition of malaria transmission with the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in the region with limited availability of public health resources. The simulation suggests the possible increment in the availability of the healthcare system to ensure malaria-free equilibria. We validate the model by fitting it to the reported human infection data from Niterói, Brazil, using 16 months of data collected before and after the release of Wolbachia. These findings will be helpful to healthcare professionals in planning the control strategy of malaria in remote or hard-to-reach locations in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.