Can policy achieve the goal of cold chain logistics sustainable development?

Abstract

Policy interventions are essential for the sustainable development of cold chain logistics (CCL). However, understanding the influence relationships and interactions between policy instruments and CCL remains challenging. This study proposes an innovative methodological approach by integrating a two-way fixed effects model (FEM) with a multilayer perceptron (MLP), thereby addressing the nonlinearity, interactions, and interpretability of CCL policy effectiveness. This study examines 586 policy texts related to the sustainable development of CCL in China (2008–2022). The results indicate that: (1) While the effectiveness of CCL policies has generally increased, regional disparities in implementation remain. (2) Targets planning, financial support, and voluntary policies are pivotal in advancing CCL development. However, capacity building and compulsory policies have not demonstrated significant effects. (3) Scenario analysis indicates that combining multiple policies is most effective, followed by a voluntary policy-led strategy. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in future sustainable development planning.