Triangulating habitat suitability for the locally extirpated California grizzly bear

Abstract

Reintroducing locally extirpated wildlife species is often necessary to meet recovery goals. However, because current field data cannot be gathered about these species, efforts to identify suitable habitat are often complicated and controversial. Here we present a case study examining a novel approach for identifying suitable habitat for the locally extirpated brown bear, known as the “grizzly,” in California, USA. Once home to a large population of grizzlies, the last credible sighting of a grizzly in California was in 1924, but recent discussions have explored a reintroduction. To study potential grizzly bear habitat suitability in California, we use a multi-model approach in which we consider three indirect methods, or “analogies,” each of which incorporates both environmental and social variables. In the “historical analogy,” we use a unique record of human encounters and museum specimens to build a habitat model of grizzlies in California 150 years ago. In the “geographic analogy,” we use data about contemporary brown bears in Europe and North America to identify potential suitable habitat in California. In the “taxonomic analogy,” we examine data from other large carnivores currently extant in California to draw conclusions about grizzlies. Because these methods yield varying results, we adopt a process known in the social sciences as “triangulation” to compare them. We show that a triangulation approach can improve our understanding of potential suitable habitat, clarifying the strengths and weaknesses of various methods and producing robust yet conservative estimates. Our findings suggest that large areas of suitable habitat for grizzlies exist in California. However, we note that place-based social science research and long-term investment in co-existence would be necessary to maintain suitability. The “analogy and triangulation” process demonstrates the value of multi-model approaches for evaluating habitat suitability, especially for reintroductions.