Investigation of ship collision accident risk factors using BP-DEMATEL method based on HFACS-SCA

Abstract

This paper proposes an objective analysis method based on historical data to comprehensively analyze the causal relationships and importance ranking of various risk factors in ship collision accidents. Firstly, 343 ship collision accident reports were investigated, and a HFACS-SCA model for analyzing risk factors in ship collisions was proposed based on the HFACS. Subsequently, Apriori and entropy methods were employed to analyze the data and obtain the weights of each risk factor. Finally, the BP-DEMATEL method was introduced to establish a quantitative evaluation system, resulting in the analysis of risk factors in collision accidents and the proposal of preventive measures. The results indicate that organizational factors are the main causal factors, while unsafe acts are the main effect factors in the main layers of HFACS-SCA. Among all risk factors, "Over speed" and "Safety management system defects are identified as significant causes of accidents. The method proposed in this paper does not require expert judgment and obtains more objective and realistic results through historical data analysis. The findings of this study could assist relevant researchers in formulating preventive measures for ship collisions and enhancing the level of ship safety management.