Spatial potential analysis and site selection for agrivoltaics in Germany

Abstract

This study presents a geodata-based analysis of agrivoltaic potential and site selection in Germany, addressing the country's photovoltaic expansion targets to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. By integrating Geographic Information Systems with the Analytical Hierarchy Process, the study quantifies available agricultural areas and identifies optimal sites. Notably, it is the first to apply a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach considering all agricultural classes. Two criteria catalogs were developed: the first for potential analysis, incorporating geographical factors and legal and regulatory requirements, categorized into hard and soft restrictions; the second for site selection, considering political-economic and agro-economic suitability criteria, with weightings assigned by experts. A Land Suitability Index was calculated to classify areas into five suitability classes, from most suitable to least suitable. The study introduced two new potential levels, regulatory and synergy potential. This research showed a regulatory potential of 7900 GWp (Scenario 1) and 5600 GWp (Scenario 2) and a synergy potential of 136 GWp (Scenario 1) and 98 GWp (Scenario 2). The most suitable areas, in terms of economic feasibility, indicate an installable capacity of 800 GWp (Scenario 1) and 500 GWp (Scenario 2), approximately 3.5- and 2.5-times Germany's photovoltaic expansion targets for 2030. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most suitable areas varying between 8.4 % and 12.8 %, suggesting the robustness of the results. This study contributes to the Sustainable Development Goal 7 and 13, providing a robust data foundation for policymakers and stakeholders to promote the expansion of renewable energy and contribute to achieving climate goals.