Risk analysis and eco-design strategies for critical mineral resources in China's vehicle electrification process

Abstract

China's rapid transition to vehicle electrification significantly increases the demand for critical minerals, thereby exacerbating supply risks. This study focuses on China's new energy vehicles, as well as the 3C battery (lithium-ion batteries utilized in devices such as computers, communication equipment, and consumer electronics) and stainless steel industries, which involve critical metal resources. It sets up three scenarios to analyze future resource supply and demand risks, and develops eco-strategies to mitigate these risks. Results reveal that under the stated policy, medium-electrification, and deep-electrification scenarios, lithium demand is projected to reach 1,083.52 LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) kilotons (kt), 1,108.63 LCE kt, and 1,190.77 LCE kt, respectively. Nickel demand is estimated at 3,221.29 kt, 3,240.82 kt, and 3,272.90 kt, while cobalt demand is forecasted at 218.21 kt, 220.66 kt, and 224.69 kt in 2040. Before 2040, the external dependence on lithium, nickel, and cobalt consistently exceeds 40 %. Moreover, there is a risk of demand outpacing supply for lithium and cobalt by 2037 and 2027, respectively. Advancements in battery technologies, increased energy density, and enhanced metal recovery processes are essential to mitigating these supply risks.