Projected changes in wind speed and wind energy resources over the Persian Gulf based on bias corrected CMIP6 models

Abstract

This study investigates future wind speed and wind energy changes in the Persian Gulf using a multi-model ensemble mean (MMM) derived from 20 CMIP6 models under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. ERA5 reanalysis wind speed data for the historical period (1995–2015) is compared to projections for the mid-future (2040–2059) and far-future (2080–2099). Quantile mapping based on Weibull distribution as a bias correction technique applied to the raw future data to obtain more reliable projections. Results show suitable wind conditions for power generation are expected to increase slightly, by 1.16 % in the mid-future and 0.75 % in the far-future. However, average annual wind speed and wind power density are projected to decrease by up to 2 % and 7 % respectively. The winter season is consistently shown to have the highest average wind speed, projected to increase over 5–7 % in the future. Spatial analysis identifies current and future wind energy hot spots, with a northward shift by the far-future. Assessments of variability over time highlight potential future alterations. The future change analysis reveals irregular regional shifts, indicating decreases in wind strength nearshore in the northern Gulf, while the southern part may experience increases, suggesting a promising trend for wind energy potential there.