Risk Assessment of Global Animal Melioidosis Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios.

Abstract

Melioidosis is a zoonotic disease that is caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, which is a serious public health and safety risk. In order to explore the global animal melioidosis risk distribution and its dynamic response to future climate scenarios, we collected global data about reported animal incidence sites. Data regarding the density of Burkholderia pseudomallei in the environment were created by collecting and sorting information about the Burkholderia pseudomallei occurrence sites in contaminated air, soil, and water. Combined with bioclimatic variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche was modeled for global animal melioidosis. The findings indicate that under current bioclimatic conditions, global animal melioidosis risk regions are concentrated between 30° S and 30° N, with high-risk areas being mainly in Central America, the northern part of South America, and eastern and southern India, among others. Most countries will expand their risk regions under future climatic scenarios. Melioidosis risk expanding towards higher northern latitudes has led to new epidemic areas. In addition, the melioidosis risk area will contract in some areas. Therefore, we have provided a basis for global melioidosis surveillance and propose feasible strategies for prevention and control in high-risk regions, which will help countries to carry out targeted surveillance and prevention to reduce risks and losses.