Accounting Variation in Abundance of Coilia dussumieri due to Environmental Covariates while Estimating Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)

Abstract

Golden anchovy, Coilia dussumieri is a unique fishery with characteristic discrete distribution. The distribution and its abundance are known to be linked with environmental variables. Three of the five selected environmental variables were found to significantly correlate with its abundance along the Gujarat coast. Sea Surface Height (SSH) was the most significantly correlated (r = -0.63; p < 0.05) environmental variable with the Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of the golden anchovies. The SSH was used as a covariate in the surplus production model to arrive at maximum sustainable yield (MSY). The estimated MSY was much less than what is estimated using a conventional model without environmental variables. Further, the incorporation of environmental covariates improves the model fit significantly. Considering the importance of environmental variables, especially in the climate change scenario, a more conservative estimates from the present study would be adopted for formulating its harvest strategies.