Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?

Abstract

A primary prediction of climate change ecology is that species will track their climate niche poleward and upslope. However, studies have shown species responding in surprising ways. In this study, we aim to understand the impact of global change on species ranges by considering both climate and habitat changes. Using occupancy analysis of acoustic survey data in the mountains of the northeastern United States, we tested specific predictions of range responses to warming (shifting upslope), precipitation change (shifting downslope), and forest composition change (shifting downslope). We found that American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, key nodes in northern North American food webs, are not tracking increasing temperatures upslope, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Structural equation modeling indicates that red squirrel abundance is primarily influenced by red-spruce forest cover, which has shifted downslope with recovery from historical logging and acid deposition. Accounting for the multiple dimensions of global change will enable better predictions and more effective conservation strategies.