Seasonal effects of extreme climate events and sea surface temperature indicators on the vulnerability of marine pelagic fisheries in the Bay of Bengal region

Abstract

The study highlights the vulnerability of the eastern coast to tropical cyclones and the unique characteristics of the Bay of Bengal region. Seasonality, driven by global climatic events and geography, significantly affects the marine ecosystem. Furthermore, it underscores the effects of extreme climate events on marine pelagic fisheries and advocates for a state-based approach to raise awareness among government institutions and fishing communities. Findings reveal a significant negative relationship between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and fish-catch (coefficient = −0.09, p < 0.01), indicating that rising SST adversely affects pelagic fish populations. Moreover, increased frequency of extreme events (−0.12 to −2.06, p < 0.05 to p < 0.01) and disturbances (−0.149 to −0.679, p < 0.05) exhibits detrimental impacts across various models. Notably, seasonal variations play a crucial role, with quarters 1, 3, and 4 demonstrating positive associations (0.186–0.604, p < 0.1 to p < 0.05) with fish-catch, signifying potentially favourable conditions during specific seasons. State-specific analysis highlights diverse impacts, wherein West Bengal experiences substantial negative effects from extreme events (−2.056, p < 0.01), emphasizing regional disparities. These findings underscore the need for regionalized mitigation strategies and sustainable fishing practices to ensure the future of the Bay of Bengal's marine ecosystem.