How can ecosystem services trade-offs/synergies help select the optimal cultivated land restoration pattern? A study based on multi-scenario simulations

Abstract

Nowadays, the growing "non-grain" use of cultivated land in certain regions of China has posed significant risks to local grain supplies. This has necessitated urgent restoration of "non-grain" cultivated land to its original purpose. Land use changes may have positive or negative effects on ecosystem services. This study explores whether and how cultivated land restoration can enhance grain production while minimizing regulating services loss. The Sanjianghui area in Hangzhou city, China, was selected as a case study to examine effects of different restoration scenarios, on provisioning and regulating services and their trade-offs. The findings suggested that the types, quantity and location of restored areas significantly influenced ecosystem services. Across eight scenarios, both trade-offs and synergies between provisioning and regulating services were observed as the restoration area expanded. The optimal scenario based on trade-offs and synergies was scenario 2035-Ⅱ, which recorded the highest synergistic intensity at 26.6%. Under this scenario, grain production increased by 5.32%, and regulating services improved by 0.11% compared to the 2020 baseline. This study presents a framework to simulate the most effective pattern of cultivated land restoration, enabling increased grain production without compromising regulating services. This research offers actionable guidance for cultivated land restoration and ecosystem management.