Forecasts for full decarbonization of the economy in off-grid systems with high end-use consumption rates through combined electricity and hydrogen deployment, the Canary Islands in 2040

Abstract

This article explores the complete decarbonization of the Canary Archipelago's economy. The proposed scenario uses electric and hydrogen energy vectors to meet all final energy demands at affordable costs. The study considers the technical and economic aspects of the proposed system, as well as an estimation of electricity generation and hydrogen production capacity in 2040, to optimize the system to meet the demand at all times without relying on external sources. The recommended scenario involves the deployment of 7500 MWp of photovoltaic energy, 1076 MWp of wind turbines, and 907 MW of SMRs. Various storage options have been tested to accommodate the unavoidable storage requirements of such stand-alone systems. The selection of reverse-pumping storage with a maximum power output of 2050 MW and a total capacity of approximately 17GWh is sufficient to cover the existing system needs. The total investment required to implement the proposed system until 2040 is estimated at around 29,000 M€, of which approximately 6000 are for the hydrogen sub-system. The proposed system entails significantly less storage capacity and curtailment while enabling the production of sufficient hydrogen to achieve the complete decarbonization of all energy end-uses.