Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Africa

Abstract

Several destructive earthquakes have occurred throughout the African continent over the past century. However, few comprehensive seismic risk models exist for the region. This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Africa, which is comprised of open model components and data sets that enable the calculation of a range of risk metrics useful for disaster risk management. Across the continent, Algeria faces the most significant predicted building damage, economic loss, population displacement, and fatality risks due to earthquakes. After Algeria, the order of highest risk countries depends on the considered risk metric, with countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Uganda joining Algeria in the top three. When measured in relative terms, smaller countries that face disproportionate risks are highlighted, such as Djibouti, Burundi, Rwanda, and Malawi. These countries are exposed to moderate seismic hazard, but have limited evidence of earthquake-resistant design and construction practices that imply significant risk of damages in future earthquakes.