Spatiotemporal changes in PV potential and extreme characteristics in China under SSP scenarios

Abstract

Changes in environmental conditions, such as radiation and temperature, driven by climate change, will significantly impact photovoltaic (PV) power generation. In this paper, we utilize 14 models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP) climate model ensemble to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of PV potential and photovoltaic drought under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios during future carbon peak (2026–2035) and carbon neutrality (2056–2065) periods in China. The results indicate that, compared to the baseline period (2005–2014), the spatial variation of future annual mean PV capacity factor shows a declining trend in the western region, but increases in the southeastern region. Furthermore, the change in capacity factor during the carbon neutrality period is greater than during the carbon peak period, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Seasonally, the most significant changes in PV capacity factor occur in autumn and winter. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during the carbon neutrality period, the change in autumn PV capacity factor exceeds 3 %. Regarding intra-annual variability, during the carbon peak period, the intra-annual variability of PV capacity factor declines in most parts of China, particularly in some southeastern regions, decreasing by over 5 %. Conversely, in the carbon neutrality period, intra-annual variability will increase in northeastern and central regions, with increases exceeding 4 %. This implies that these regions may face greater challenges in balancing supply and demand and managing stability in their power systems. Similar to climatic extreme events, the spatial-temporal characteristics of photovoltaic “drought” are analyzed. During the carbon neutrality period, the frequency of photovoltaic droughts (PVDF) in China is projected to decrease by approximately 10 % compared to historical periods, while the severity of photovoltaic droughts (PVDS) will significantly increase, rising by 17 % (36 %) under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Regionally, the frequency, duration, and severity of photovoltaic drought events in most regions of China are all diminishing, while there will be an increase in the northwestern and northeastern regions, with the severity metric rising by 63 % and 49 %, respectively. This indicates that the situation regarding photovoltaic droughts will become increasingly severe in these regions.