Digital pathways to resilience: Assessing the impact of digitalization on agricultural production resilience in China

Abstract

Agricultural production, a cornerstone of human activity, is facing mounting challenges from instability and uncertainty. This study examines the impact of digitalization on the resilience of agricultural production in China, developing an innovative probabilistic framework able to assess agricultural resilience at the county level. The proposed model measures resilience as the likelihood of agricultural systems maintaining output above a defined baseline under uncertain conditions. Based on panel data of 1766 counties in China, this study reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between digitalization and resilience. Specifically, whereas moderate digitalization enhances resilience, excessive digitalization introduces vulnerabilities. Mechanism analysis shows that digitalization drives rural income growth and optimizes factor utilization, but excessive digitalization widens income disparities and triggers resource outflows from agriculture. Results also show that new agricultural operating entities can mitigate the adverse effects of excessive digitalization by fostering collective action. These findings deepen our understanding of the complex mechanisms underlying agricultural digital transformation and offer practical insights for promoting resilience through balanced digitalization.