Identifying the new momentum from the instrumental substitution of energy industry in China: Empirical evidence from the ultra-high voltage transmission projects

Abstract

As a key initiative within China's new infrastructure strategy, ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission projects effectively mitigate the disparities in the distribution of power resources across the country to some extent. These projects are crucial for facilitating uninterrupted production in industrial enterprises. Against this context, this paper treats the commissioning of UHV projects as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze energy supply dynamics. Utilizing double machine learning (DML) and random forest methodologies, the effects and underlying mechanisms of UHV projects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of industrial enterprises are investigated. UHV projects are found to significantly promote the TFP of industrial enterprises, and this conclusion remains robust even after accounting for heterogeneity in treatment effects. Additionally, the effectiveness of two transmission mechanisms is validated, including cost reduction and capacity stimulation. Further analysis under constrained conditions revealed significant differences in the policy effects of UHV transmission projects at both the macro-level of the national economy and the micro-level of individual enterprises. The highlights provide valuable insights into a new paradigm for optimizing the geographical distribution of energy, advancing energy transformation, and stimulating regional economic growth.