Quantifying climate change-driven variations in projected wind condition in the Gulf of Guinea

Abstract

Understanding wind climate dynamics in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is critical for addressing climate-related challenges and supporting sustainable development in the region. This study evaluates the wind climate using observational buoy data from the PIRATA network and multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) under historical and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenarios. An ensemble dataset, constructed as the average of GCM outputs, was validated against PIRATA buoy measurements and demonstrated better performance to individual GCMs. The study revealed distinct temporal and spatial variability in wind conditions across the dry and rainy seasons during the baseline period (1961–2014). Projections under RCP 8.5 for mid-century (2026–2060) and end-century (2066–2100) consistently indicate increasing wind speeds, with the most significant changes projected during the rainy season. These findings highlight the critical role of ensemble modelling in mitigating biases inherent in individual datasets and its contribution to a robust understanding of wind dynamics in the region. The observed trends have significant implications for coastal upwelling, maritime safety, renewable energy development, and climate resilience strategies in the GoG. This study highlights the necessity of fine-scale spatio-temporal modelling to improve predictions and guide evidence-based adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems and vulnerable communities.