Land Use Changes and Sustainable Development Goals Alignment Through Assessing Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand Balance

Abstract

Ecosystem service quality is closely linked to human well-being, and sustainable provision of ecosystem service is essential for ensuring regional ecological security and achieving sustainability goals. An innovative valuation framework is introduced that combines land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis, supply and demand matrices and Gini coefficient calculations to assess the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES-S and ES-D). Unlike traditional static methods, this approach captures intricate spatial and temporal mismatches, offering new insights into the impacts of LUCC on ES balance within the framework of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) as a case study, the findings indicate a significant decrease in cultivated land, accompanied by expansion of forest and built-up area, driven by farmland-to-forest policies and urbanization. These shifts have improved the balance of provisioning and supporting services but have also intensified regional disparities, particularly in Chongqing, where demand outpaces supply. Furthermore, LUCC have altered the capacity of ecosystems in the TGRA to provide essential services, such as soil retention and water regulation, thereby supporting progress toward SDGs related to ecosystem sustainability. However, imbalances in cultural services persist, highlighting the need for targeted management strategies to optimize ES provision and support regional sustainability. This study underscores the importance of ongoing ES-S and ES-D assessments to inform sustainable land management policies in ecologically sensitive areas like the TGRA.