Past hydroclimate extremes in Europe driven by Atlantic jet stream and recurrent weather patterns

Abstract

The jet stream over the Atlantic–European sector is relevant for weather and climate in Europe. It generates temperature extremes and steers moisture and flood-propelling weather systems to Europe or facilitates the development of atmospheric blocks, which can lead to drought. Ongoing climate change may alter the jet characteristics, affecting weather extremes. However, little is known about the past interannual-to-decadal variability of the jet stream. Here we analyse the strength, tilt and latitude of the Atlantic–European jet from 1421 to 2023 in an ensemble of monthly and daily reconstructions of atmospheric fields. We compare the variability of these jet indices with blocking frequency and cyclonic activity data and with drought and flood reconstructions in Europe. Summer drought is enhanced in Central Europe in periods with a poleward-shifted jet. An equatorward-shifted jet associated with decreased blocking leads to frequent floods in Western Europe and the Alps, particularly in winter. Recurrent weather patterns causing floods often characterize an entire season, such that an association between peak discharge and jet indices is seen on seasonal or even annual scales. Jet strength and tilt are significantly influenced by volcanic eruptions. Our 600-year perspective shows that recent changes in the jet indices are within the past variability and cannot be drivers of increasing flood and drought frequency. European climate extremes during the past 600 years were in large part driven by changes in the position and strength of the jet stream over the Atlantic, according to an analysis of terrestrial hydroclimate records.