A host availability-driven model for predicting the distribution of Red Palm Weevil in China

Abstract

Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (red palm weevil, RPW) is a major invasive pest of Phoenix canariensis, P. sylvestris, Cocos nucifera, and Trachycarpus fortunei in China that threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services, causing significant economic and agricultural losses. We developed a pest risk assessment model using host preference data to enhance distribution forecasting with MaxEnt simulations. This study utilized the Maximum Entropy model to analyze RPW and host distribution patterns under current and future climates (2060, 2100), using CMIP-6 projections (SSP 2–4.5 and 5–8.5). Our results indicate that: (a) Including host availability significantly improves the MaxEnt model output (P < 0.05); (b) All model groups demonstrated excellent predictive power (AUC >0.93); (c) By 2100, suitable habitat for RPW is projected to expand under SSP 2–4.5 (305.61 × 10⁴ Km²) but contract under SSP 5–8.5 (293.26 × 10⁴ Km²), compared to the current area (298.15 × 10⁴ km²). The current habitat centroid (Hunan Province, 112.792°E, 28.208°N) is expected to shift southeast under SSP 2–4.5 and northwest under SSP 5–8.5; (d) Suitable habitat for all four host species is projected to expand under both scenarios; (e) Regions between 98.475°E − 119.214°E and 33.358°N – 18.043°N, including Taiwan, are favorable for RPW under all scenarios. The projected suitable ranges of host plants align with RPW distribution patterns through the end of the century; (f) Key variables affecting RPW distribution include temperature, precipitation, NDVI, and host availability. For host species, temperature, precipitation, habitat, and terrain are crucial factors. This study highlights key insights into RPW and host habitat dynamics in China, identifying high-risk regions and emphasizing timely interventions.