Trends and impacts of climate-induced extreme weather events in South Africa (1920–2023)

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly recognized as one of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century. In South Africa, climate-induced extreme weather events have become more frequent, intense, and unpredictable, posing significant threats to humanity, ecosystems, and the economy. Therefore, there is an urgent need to better understand the trends and impacts of climate-induced extreme weather events in South Africa to inform evidence-based policy and decision-making. This study examines the trends and impacts of climate-induced extreme weather events in South Africa over the period 1920 to 2023. Using a comprehensive analysis of historical data, and scientific literature, the study identified significant trends (p < 0.05) in the frequency of climate-induced weather events. The results reveal a general increase in the frequency of most extreme weather events, with notable spikes in specific decades. For instance, the 2011–2020 decade recorded the highest number of extreme weather events, totalling over 1,800. However, there is a spatial variation in the frequency of occurrence of these events across provinces, with the Western Cape province having the highest frequencies, while the North West Province has the lowest. The findings highlight the significant socio-economic and environmental impacts associated with such climate-induced extreme weather events, including infrastructure damage, agricultural losses, water scarcity, and adverse health effects. The study underscores the critical need for robust climate adaptation and resilience strategies to address the escalating risks posed by, among other weather extremes, floods, droughts, tornadoes, heatwaves, hailstorm, snow and frost, and wildfires. The increasing prevalence and severity of these events call for immediate and coordinated action to enhance South Africa's preparedness and response capabilities in the face of a changing climate.