Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity and Urban Utility Consumption: Impact Analysis and Projections.

Abstract

The rise in urban temperature has several impacts on the urban population. It manifests in water consumption, quality, and availability; energy consumption; greenhouse gas emissions; ecological disturbances; and human health. Studies have been conducted on the severity of the impact of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) on these variables at different scales in different parts of the world. The majority of the studies in Ethiopia considered the effect of per capita income on per capita water and energy consumption, disregarding the effect of temperature. However, this study tried to investigate the impact of SUHII on these utilities. It tested to see future trends in consumption in line with future SUHII patterns from 2024 to 2040. The present impacts were investigated using the path model and the future trends in consumption with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The models' efficiency was checked using the sum of square error (SSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and archaic information criterion corrected (AICC), respectively. The best ARIMA models for SUHII, water, and electricity consumption were (3, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2), and (1, 1, 2) with AICC values of 13.72, -5.44, and 17.67, respectively. The result of the path model analysis buttressed that SUHII has a more significant impact on water (2.378 m³/1°C/annum) than electricity (1.616 kW/1°C/annum). The ARIMA model confirmed an increase in future water and electricity consumption. These results suggest that urban planners should consider the effects of SUHII on water and energy demand when they evaluate growth strategies and use incentives to encourage efficiency and sustainability.