Adaptation of a physiologically based demographic model for predicting the phenology of Cryptoblabes gnidiella with validation in Italian vineyards

IF 4.3 1区 农林科学 Q1 ENTOMOLOGY Journal of Pest Science Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI:10.1007/s10340-025-01868-4
Marta Corbetta, Giovanni Benelli, Renato Ricciardi, Vittorio Rossi, Andrea Lucchi
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Abstract

The increasing spread and destructiveness of the honeydew moth, Cryptoblabes gnidiella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae: Phycitinae), requires an effective pest management approach, in which the application of insecticides is based on the presence and abundance of the insect in the vineyard. Pest monitoring, however, is challenging because of the difficulties in identifying eggs and larvae. Forecasting models, particularly physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs), are helpful tools in the management of several agricultural insect pests. No PBDMs of note are available for C. gnidiella to date. Herein, we adapted a PBDM for Lobesia botrana to C. gnidiella by using literature data on insect developmental rates to fit temperature-dependent equations, and we validated the model by using independent data consisting of weekly male catches in pheromone traps placed in 16 wine-growing areas of Central and Southern Italy, between 2014 and 2022. Comparison of model predictions versus trap data of adults provided R2 = 0.922, CRM (coefficient of residual mass, a measure of the model tendency to overestimate or underestimate the observed values) = 0.223, and CCC (the concordance correlation coefficient) = 0.924. Goodness-of-fit results showed that the model was capable of correctly predicting C. gnidiella flights, with a little tendency to underestimate real observations. Overall, our results make the model quite realistic and potentially useful to support insect monitoring activities and decision-making in crop protection, at least in the contexts in which the model was validated. Further validations should be carried out to test the model ability to also predict the presence of C. gnidiella juvenile stages.

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来源期刊
Journal of Pest Science
Journal of Pest Science 生物-昆虫学
CiteScore
10.40
自引率
8.30%
发文量
114
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Pest Science publishes high-quality papers on all aspects of pest science in agriculture, horticulture (including viticulture), forestry, urban pests, and stored products research, including health and safety issues. Journal of Pest Science reports on advances in control of pests and animal vectors of diseases, the biology, ethology and ecology of pests and their antagonists, and the use of other beneficial organisms in pest control. The journal covers all noxious or damaging groups of animals, including arthropods, nematodes, molluscs, and vertebrates. Journal of Pest Science devotes special attention to emerging and innovative pest control strategies, including the side effects of such approaches on non-target organisms, for example natural enemies and pollinators, and the implementation of these strategies in integrated pest management. Journal of Pest Science also publishes papers on the management of agro- and forest ecosystems where this is relevant to pest control. Papers on important methodological developments relevant for pest control will be considered as well.
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