Development of roundabout crash-specific safety performance functions in Kentucky using different techniques

Abstract

Introduction: Roundabouts are one of the innovative intersection designs that can reduce the number of fatal and serious injury crashes compared to traditional intersections. Nevertheless, relatively limited studies are available that have developed roundabout crash-specific safety performance functions (SPFs) using different modeling techniques. This study develops roundabout crash-specific SPFs using crashes in the state of Kentucky over a four-year period (2019–2022). Method: Crash data exhibited over-dispersion; hence, negative binomial (NB) and heterogenous negative binomial (HTNB), as well as Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) modeling approaches with fixed and varying dispersion parameters (while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity) were investigated. The performance of the fitted models was evaluated using different goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics, e.g., Akaike information criterion “AIC,” Bayesian information criterion “BIC,” and McFadden pseudo R². Results: The GOF measures showed that the heterogeneous CMP (or HTCMP) model was the best-fit model for developing roundabout SPFs. The results of the HTCMP model showed that annual average daily traffic (AADT) on major and minor approaches to the roundabout and inscribed circle diameter (ICD) were significantly associated with increased crash frequency at roundabouts. Conversely, single circulatory lanes, presence of two lanes along the major roundabout approach, and wider circulatory roadway width (greater than 16 feet) were significantly associated with reduced crashes at roundabouts. Practical Applications: Based on the study results, safety countermeasures were proposed to enhance safety at roundabouts. One example is ensuring roundabout circulatory roadway widths greater than 16 feet to provide adequate room for driving error rectification while navigating roundabouts.