Turkey's Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance

Abstract

Bashar al-Assad's shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ascendant in the region. This article examines the multifaceted trajectory of Turkey's involvement in the Syrian civil war and provides insights into the challenges ahead. It first traces Turkey's evolving positions throughout the Syrian crisis, highlighting its moves during critical junctures. It argues that Ankara shaped the conflict by transforming its strategic thinking, abandoning the agenda of regime change and instead prioritizing its self-interest and national security. This required internalizing costs and exercising strategic patience, flexibility, and pragmatism. Next, the article examines how, through difficult adjustments between 2015 and 2020, Turkey managed to create an unstable equilibrium on the ground. It then analyzes patterns of Ankara's engagement with the new Syria, in which it plays three interrelated roles: enabler, state builder, and protector. As for whether Turkey has “won” the war, the article discusses its advantages and challenges. While the official Turkish approach has been cautious, the final section argues that Ankara should avoid a patron-client relationship with the new administration in Damascus and forge the appropriate regional and international alignments. This can be ensured through a “sphere of interest” policy.