Transition in dynamic events: The 2020 lightning complex fires in Northern California as an adaptive system.

Abstract

The transition from one level of operations to a next larger, more complex level while maintaining coherence as a system has stymied organizational theorists for decades. Drawing on systems theory, network analysis, and collaborative governance, we explore how networks adapt during rapidly escalating crises. Specifically, we investigate the emergence of a synthesizing intelligence function among networks to support coordinated action. Using a case study of the 2020 Santa Clara Unit Lightning Complex Fire, we analyze field operations data from Incident Reports filed by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection to develop a system dynamics model. Our findings suggest that a synthesizing intelligence function, informed by various types of intelligence, influences the rate of change in operational systems during dynamic conditions. This system-wide intelligence function is crucial for decision-makers confronting extreme events, facilitating effective anticipation of complex transitions in large-scale operational systems.