Mathematical model analysis of malaria transmission dynamics with induced complications

IF 2.7 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI:10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02635
Bereket Hido Wako , Mohammed Yiha Dawed , Legesse Lemecha Obsu
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Abstract

This study develops a mathematical model to analyze malaria transmission dynamics. It accounts for complications like severe anemia and organ dysfunction, which impact disease outcomes and healthcare systems. The study includes rigorous analysis to confirm the existence and uniqueness of the solution, positivity, boundedness, and stability of the equilibrium points. Stability analysis is done using the Routh–Hurwitz criteria and the Castillo-Chavez approach. It is verified that the malaria-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is below one, with no backward bifurcation. A forward bifurcation exists with a smooth transition to endemic states as R0 crosses one. Local sensitivity analysis justifies a 10% increase in transmission rates β1 or β2 raises R0 by 5%, while a 10% increase in recovery rate θc or mosquito mortality rate μv reduce R0 by 1.3% and 5%, respectively. Global sensitivity analysis was conducted, and it identified that θc has strong impact on the model’s output. Among all the parameters, θc and the death rate of mosquitoes were found to be the most influential in determining the behavior of the model. We fit the mathematical model to malaria data from Ethiopia and estimate parameters using Matlab’s fminsearch routine. The effect of seasonal malaria transmission rate is also discussed. Simulation analysis show that increasing treatment and mosquito death rates, while reducing transmission rates, can reduce the malaria burden. The findings emphasize the need to control complications and improve vector management for effective malaria interventions in regions like Ethiopia.
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这项研究建立了一个数学模型来分析疟疾传播动态。该模型考虑了严重贫血和器官功能障碍等并发症,这些并发症会影响疾病结果和医疗保健系统。研究包括严格的分析,以确认解的存在性和唯一性、均衡点的实在性、有界性和稳定性。稳定性分析采用了 Routh-Hurwitz 准则和 Castillo-Chavez 方法。结果证明,当 R0 小于 1 时,无疟疾平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,不存在向后分叉。当 R0 越过 1 时,存在向前分叉,并平稳过渡到流行状态。局部敏感性分析证明,传播率 β1 或 β2 增加 10%,R0 会增加 5%,而恢复率 θc 或蚊子死亡率 μv 增加 10%,R0 会分别减少 1.3%和 5%。进行全局敏感性分析后发现,θc 对模型的输出影响很大。在所有参数中,θc 和蚊子死亡率对模型行为的影响最大。我们将数学模型与埃塞俄比亚的疟疾数据进行了拟合,并使用 Matlab 的 fminsearch 程序对参数进行了估计。我们还讨论了季节性疟疾传播率的影响。模拟分析表明,提高治疗率和蚊子死亡率,同时降低传播率,可以减轻疟疾负担。研究结果强调了在埃塞俄比亚等地区控制并发症和改善病媒管理以有效干预疟疾的必要性。
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来源期刊
Scientific African
Scientific African Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
332
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊最新文献
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