{"title":"Reconsidering stochasticity in modeling of bacterial population growth and inactivation with technical and biological variability.","authors":"Kento Koyama, Zafiro Aspridou, Hiroki Abe, Konstantinos Koutsoumanis, Shige Koseki","doi":"10.1016/j.jfp.2025.100482","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Considering variability in microbial behavior has been recognized as a crucial element for predictive microbiology and quantitative microbial risk assessment. Although some sources of variability have been listed so far, a mathematical description of the variability in bacterial population behavior has not yet been realized. The present paper illustrates stochastic bacterial population growth and/or inactivation behavior from a mathematical point of view. Among various stochastic factors, sampling for the quantification of bacterial numbers and single-cell division/inactivation responses to food environments are highlighted as sources of technical and biological variability. Furthermore, the variability in sampling and single-cell division/inactivation responses emerges as variability in both number and time from the viewpoint of population dynamics. The aforementioned mathematical description of variability enables combining Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions into traditional kinetic equations as its residual distribution. The primary focus is on the stochastic nature of variability, while it also includes discussions on incorporating parameter uncertainty into mathematical models. The traditional kinetic equation integrated with technical and biological variability and uncertainty enables a precise estimate of variation in population behavior, which would facilitate exposure assessment in quantitative microbial risk assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":15903,"journal":{"name":"Journal of food protection","volume":" ","pages":"100482"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of food protection","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfp.2025.100482","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIOTECHNOLOGY & APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Considering variability in microbial behavior has been recognized as a crucial element for predictive microbiology and quantitative microbial risk assessment. Although some sources of variability have been listed so far, a mathematical description of the variability in bacterial population behavior has not yet been realized. The present paper illustrates stochastic bacterial population growth and/or inactivation behavior from a mathematical point of view. Among various stochastic factors, sampling for the quantification of bacterial numbers and single-cell division/inactivation responses to food environments are highlighted as sources of technical and biological variability. Furthermore, the variability in sampling and single-cell division/inactivation responses emerges as variability in both number and time from the viewpoint of population dynamics. The aforementioned mathematical description of variability enables combining Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions into traditional kinetic equations as its residual distribution. The primary focus is on the stochastic nature of variability, while it also includes discussions on incorporating parameter uncertainty into mathematical models. The traditional kinetic equation integrated with technical and biological variability and uncertainty enables a precise estimate of variation in population behavior, which would facilitate exposure assessment in quantitative microbial risk assessment.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Food Protection® (JFP) is an international, monthly scientific journal in the English language published by the International Association for Food Protection (IAFP). JFP publishes research and review articles on all aspects of food protection and safety. Major emphases of JFP are placed on studies dealing with:
Tracking, detecting (including traditional, molecular, and real-time), inactivating, and controlling food-related hazards, including microorganisms (including antibiotic resistance), microbial (mycotoxins, seafood toxins) and non-microbial toxins (heavy metals, pesticides, veterinary drug residues, migrants from food packaging, and processing contaminants), allergens and pests (insects, rodents) in human food, pet food and animal feed throughout the food chain;
Microbiological food quality and traditional/novel methods to assay microbiological food quality;
Prevention of food-related hazards and food spoilage through food preservatives and thermal/non-thermal processes, including process validation;
Food fermentations and food-related probiotics;
Safe food handling practices during pre-harvest, harvest, post-harvest, distribution and consumption, including food safety education for retailers, foodservice, and consumers;
Risk assessments for food-related hazards;
Economic impact of food-related hazards, foodborne illness, food loss, food spoilage, and adulterated foods;
Food fraud, food authentication, food defense, and foodborne disease outbreak investigations.