Steven J. Hromada, Jason L. Jones, Jocelyn B. Stalker, Dustin A. Wood, Amy G. Vandergast, C. Richard Tracy, C. M. Gienger, Kenneth E. Nussear
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Describing future habitat for sensitive species can be helpful in planning conservation efforts to ensure species persistence under new climatic conditions. The Gila monster (Heloderma suspectum) is an iconic lizard of the southwestern United States. The northernmost range of Gila monsters is the Mojave Desert, an area experiencing rapid human population growth and urban sprawl. To understand current and potential future habitat for Gila monsters in the Mojave Desert, we fit ensemble species distribution models using known locations and current environmental variables known to be important to the species' biology. We then projected future suitable habitat under different climate forecasts based on IPCC emission scenarios. To ensure that Gila monsters would be able to disperse to newly suitable habitat, we fit Brownian Bridge movement models using telemetry data from two locations in Nevada. This model indicated that Gila monsters prefer to move through areas with a moderate slope and higher shrub cover. Modeled current suitable habitat for Gila monsters in Nevada was primarily in rugged bajadas and lower elevations at the bases of mountain ranges. Predictions of potential future habitat suggested that overall habitat suitability through 2082 would remain relatively stable throughout the study area in the lower emissions scenario, but in the high emissions scenario potential habitat is greatly reduced in many lower-elevation areas. Future habitat areas at higher elevations under the high emissions scenario showed moderate increases in suitability, though occupancy would likely be limited by Gila monster dispersal capabilities. Finally, we determined how well the protected area network of our study area encompassed future Gila monster habitat to highlight potential opportunities to protect this important species.
期刊介绍:
Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment.
Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.