Climate and Dispersal Ability Limit Future Habitats for Gila Monsters in the Mojave Desert

IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Ecology and Evolution Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI:10.1002/ece3.71008
Steven J. Hromada, Jason L. Jones, Jocelyn B. Stalker, Dustin A. Wood, Amy G. Vandergast, C. Richard Tracy, C. M. Gienger, Kenneth E. Nussear
{"title":"Climate and Dispersal Ability Limit Future Habitats for Gila Monsters in the Mojave Desert","authors":"Steven J. Hromada,&nbsp;Jason L. Jones,&nbsp;Jocelyn B. Stalker,&nbsp;Dustin A. Wood,&nbsp;Amy G. Vandergast,&nbsp;C. Richard Tracy,&nbsp;C. M. Gienger,&nbsp;Kenneth E. Nussear","doi":"10.1002/ece3.71008","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Describing future habitat for sensitive species can be helpful in planning conservation efforts to ensure species persistence under new climatic conditions. The Gila monster (<i>Heloderma suspectum</i>) is an iconic lizard of the southwestern United States. The northernmost range of Gila monsters is the Mojave Desert, an area experiencing rapid human population growth and urban sprawl. To understand current and potential future habitat for Gila monsters in the Mojave Desert, we fit ensemble species distribution models using known locations and current environmental variables known to be important to the species' biology. We then projected future suitable habitat under different climate forecasts based on IPCC emission scenarios. To ensure that Gila monsters would be able to disperse to newly suitable habitat, we fit Brownian Bridge movement models using telemetry data from two locations in Nevada. This model indicated that Gila monsters prefer to move through areas with a moderate slope and higher shrub cover. Modeled current suitable habitat for Gila monsters in Nevada was primarily in rugged bajadas and lower elevations at the bases of mountain ranges. Predictions of potential future habitat suggested that overall habitat suitability through 2082 would remain relatively stable throughout the study area in the lower emissions scenario, but in the high emissions scenario potential habitat is greatly reduced in many lower-elevation areas. Future habitat areas at higher elevations under the high emissions scenario showed moderate increases in suitability, though occupancy would likely be limited by Gila monster dispersal capabilities. Finally, we determined how well the protected area network of our study area encompassed future Gila monster habitat to highlight potential opportunities to protect this important species.</p>","PeriodicalId":11467,"journal":{"name":"Ecology and Evolution","volume":"15 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ece3.71008","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecology and Evolution","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.71008","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Describing future habitat for sensitive species can be helpful in planning conservation efforts to ensure species persistence under new climatic conditions. The Gila monster (Heloderma suspectum) is an iconic lizard of the southwestern United States. The northernmost range of Gila monsters is the Mojave Desert, an area experiencing rapid human population growth and urban sprawl. To understand current and potential future habitat for Gila monsters in the Mojave Desert, we fit ensemble species distribution models using known locations and current environmental variables known to be important to the species' biology. We then projected future suitable habitat under different climate forecasts based on IPCC emission scenarios. To ensure that Gila monsters would be able to disperse to newly suitable habitat, we fit Brownian Bridge movement models using telemetry data from two locations in Nevada. This model indicated that Gila monsters prefer to move through areas with a moderate slope and higher shrub cover. Modeled current suitable habitat for Gila monsters in Nevada was primarily in rugged bajadas and lower elevations at the bases of mountain ranges. Predictions of potential future habitat suggested that overall habitat suitability through 2082 would remain relatively stable throughout the study area in the lower emissions scenario, but in the high emissions scenario potential habitat is greatly reduced in many lower-elevation areas. Future habitat areas at higher elevations under the high emissions scenario showed moderate increases in suitability, though occupancy would likely be limited by Gila monster dispersal capabilities. Finally, we determined how well the protected area network of our study area encompassed future Gila monster habitat to highlight potential opportunities to protect this important species.

Abstract Image

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
3.80%
发文量
1027
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment. Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.
期刊最新文献
Divergent Selection Promotes Intraspecific Genomic Differentiation in Spodoptera littoralis With Possible Involvement in Detoxification Climate and Dispersal Ability Limit Future Habitats for Gila Monsters in the Mojave Desert Local Genetic Adaptations Among Remnant Populations of British Common Juniper, Juniperus communis, Indicated by a Common Garden Trial Variable Breeding Strategies in a Fluctuating Environment: A Feeding Experiment in Eastern Chipmunks Mitochondrial Genomes of Six Discogobio Species (Teleostei, Cyprinidae) and Their Phylogenetic Analysis
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1