Urban climate risk assessment under climate and land use changes impact: A multi-dimensional approach

Abstract

This study presents a multi-dimensional approach to assess urban climate risks under the dual pressures of climate change and land-use transformations, with a focus on the city of Shanghai. By integrating climate, land-use, and socio-economic factors, our approach provides a comprehensive framework to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate and land-use scenarios on urban environments. Utilizing the patch-generating simulation (PLUS) model and downscaled Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data, this research projected land-use patterns and climate indicators for 2030 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results reveals a complex interplay between climatic hazards, urban development, and socio-economic dynamics, which highlights the pattern of higher extreme climate risks in the northwest and lower in the southeast of Shanghai. By 2030, while land transformation is projected to decrease, the increase in impervious surfaces is expected to persist. The Climate Risk Index (CR) for Shanghai, under scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, is primarily influenced by climatic factors, with extreme precipitation and heatwaves being significant. The findings underscore the necessity of a holistic approach to urban climate risk assessment, emphasizing the primary influence of climatic factors, followed by land-use changes, with socio-economic factors playing a less pronounced role. This study enhances the understanding of urban climate risk within the context of global environmental changes and provides a replicable methodology for other urban centers confronting similar challenges.