Upward and Northwest Range Shifts for Four Endemic Lamiaceae Medicinal Herbs in the Third Pole

Abstract

In response to climate warming, alpine plants are migrating to higher elevations and latitudes to track suitable habitats. In mountainous systems, the contraction of land area toward mountaintops is causing plant habitats to shrink as plants migrate upwards. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its adjacent Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains (HHMs) constitute the world's highest flora, known as the “Third Pole” To predict the responses to climate change of alpine plants in the Third Pole, we utilized four endemic Lamiaceae alpine herbs as an Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) based on comprehensive data comprising 740 occurrence records and 26 environmental variables using Biomod2. The primary results revealed that climate-related factors, particularly temperature variability, shape the distribution patterns of the study species and drive them to migrate upward and northward in the future. The heterogeneous topography of the HHM and the TP leads to distinct distribution dynamics. The TP can provide substantial new potential distribution areas to mitigate habitat loss in the adjacent HHM under climate warming. Meanwhile, stable areas in the high-elevation regions within HHM can serve as refugia to ensure species survival under climate change.