Spatial-temporal distribution and risk factors of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Java Island, Indonesia from 2022 to 2023.

Abstract

Background: Indonesia faced new outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in 2022 after being officially free from the disease for several decades. The outbreaks were first reported in East Java in April 2022 and subsequently spread to many regions in Indonesia. This study investigated the epidemiology and risk factors of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Java, Indonesia, from 2022 to 2023. Descriptive, spatial, spatiotemporal, and risk factor analyses were conducted to investigate the patterns and risk factors associated with the outbreaks in Java.

Results: Results showed that the outbreaks were distributed across the island. East Java was the most affected region. The outbreaks peaked in June 2022, followed by a downward trend until 2023. Positive spatial autocorrelations were found in both years, indicating that the outbreaks clustered in several areas. The spatiotemporal analysis found a total of 16 clusters in both years, with 11 clusters in 2022 and 5 clusters in 2023. The temporal distribution of clusters indicated a peak period from May to July, with 12 out of 16 clusters occurring during this time. Risk factor analysis found that environmental and agricultural-related factors, including annual precipitation, the presence of livestock markets, the presence of slaughterhouses, the presence of animal health centres, cattle population, and goat population, are significant risk factors for the occurrence of outbreaks in Java. Probability risk mapping found higher risk areas primarily distributed in the eastern and central parts of Java.

Conclusions: The outbreaks predominantly clustered in eastern and central parts of Java. The outbreaks peaked in June 2022, followed by a downward trend until the end of 2023. Environmental and agricultural-related factors significantly increased the risk of outbreak occurrence.