[The impact of the demographic crunch on standards of living over the long term].

Abstract

The long-term implications of the radical decline in fertility that has occurred in all modern industrial societies are analyzed, with particular reference to Canada. "On first approximation, calculations based on the Solow growth model predict a decline in the time path of aggregate consumption per adult that could reach 5 or 6 per cent in Canada in 2011-2016, but would become smaller thereafter. The demographic shock would therefore not generate economic tragedy. This result is the outcome of the opposite effects on aggregate consumption of the declining population growth rate and of the rising dependency ratio." (SUMMARY IN ENG)