ACTUALITE ECONOMIQUE最新文献

"We suppose that women (couples), who are less than 40 years old, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation.... We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of 'married' women in Quebec to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method.... This empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal and transfer policies in favor of families with dependent children on fertility, [women's] labor force participation and the importance of spending costs for the two levels of government." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

"The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of immigration on the market of some disadvantaged groups of Canadian workers, i.e., women, younger workers, and workers with low levels of schooling. The analysis is done with the micro-data from the 1981 and 1986 Canadian Censuses. Based on their distribution by industry and occupation, recent immigrants are more likely to compete with the disadvantaged groups of Canadian workers than with advantaged ones. However, an analysis of relative earnings by region shows that the relationship between the earnings differentials and the proportion of immigrants is not the same for all the disadvantaged groups. In particular, earnings differentials between men and women tend to be lower in the regions with a high proportion of immigrants than in those with a low proportion." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

"This study compares the economic well-being of families with and without children and looks into their place in the size distribution of income, in Canada and Quebec from 1971 to 1987. The evidence presented in the paper suggests that having children reduces the chances of affluence and increases the risk of poverty. Viewed from the perspective of the low levels of fertility in Canada and in Quebec, the evidence casts some doubts on the consistency of recent changes, by the two levels of government, in the fiscal and transfer policies concerning families with children." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

The impact of demographic aging on social expenditures is examined, with particular reference to Canada. "The merits of four of the mechanisms or means that are proposed to alleviate the additional cost of aging are reviewed: economic growth, increase in the labour force participation rate, economies of scale and [restructuring] of social expenditures. We bring up many uncertainties regarding the mechanisms or means proposed. Therefore we should not take for granted that the effect of aging will be easily absorbed." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

The long-term implications of the radical decline in fertility that has occurred in all modern industrial societies are analyzed, with particular reference to Canada. "On first approximation, calculations based on the Solow growth model predict a decline in the time path of aggregate consumption per adult that could reach 5 or 6 per cent in Canada in 2011-2016, but would become smaller thereafter. The demographic shock would therefore not generate economic tragedy. This result is the outcome of the opposite effects on aggregate consumption of the declining population growth rate and of the rising dependency ratio." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

"The author presents a critical evaluation of the different estimates of birth, death, and marriage rates in French Canada before 1850. He examines critically the sensitivity of these estimates to changes in the nature of the prevailing conceptual framework. In particular, the impact of the 'natalist' tradition and of the 'demographic transition hypothesis' on these estimates is noted." (summary in ENG)

"Using a Faucher-Dales approach to migration phenomena, the authors sketch a plausible scenario of the pattern of migration of French Canadians to the United States [from 1790 to 1940] as regulated by the size of the differential economic rent. Making use of all available data, the authors show that this approach would appear to be vindicated to the extent that the scenario it suggests is compatible with the available estimates of the migration flows." (summary in ENG)

The author examines migration between Ontario and the two Atlantic provinces of Canada from 1960-1961 to 1975-1976. "Search theory is used as the theoretical framework and leads to predictions as to the influence on interprovincial migratory flows of three economic variables: relative wages, employment opportunities, and employment insurance." (summary in ENG)