Does resilience yield dividends? Co-benefits of investing in increased resilience in Cedar Rapids.

Juan F Fung, Jennifer F Helgeson, David H Webb, Cheyney M O'Fallon, Harvey Cutler
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Abstract

Cedar Rapids, IA, offers a unique case study in planning for increased resilience. In 2008, Cedar Rapids experienced severe flooding. Rather than simply rebuilding, the city of Cedar Rapids began to invest in a resilient flood control system and in the revitalization of its Downtown neighborhood. This paper develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the regional economy of Cedar Rapids to quantify 'resilience dividends': net co-benefits of investing in increased resilience. A resilience dividend includes benefits to the community even if another disaster does not occur. We build a CGE model of Cedar Rapids at two different time periods: one in 2007, before the flooding, and one in 2015, after the flooding and initial investment in resilience. We show that a positive economic shock to the economy results in larger co-benefits for key economic indicators in 2015 than in 2007. Our approach illustrates how co-benefits are distributed throughout the economy.

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抗灾能力会产生红利吗?投资提高锡兹拉皮兹市抗灾能力的共同效益。
美国内华达州锡达拉皮兹市在规划提高抗灾能力方面提供了一个独特的案例研究。2008 年,锡兹拉皮兹遭遇了严重的洪灾。西达拉皮兹市并没有简单地进行重建,而是开始投资建设具有抗灾能力的防洪系统,并对市中心街区进行振兴。本文为锡兹拉皮兹的区域经济建立了一个可计算一般均衡模型,以量化 "抗灾能力红利":投资于提高抗灾能力的净共同利益。抗灾能力红利包括即使不发生另一场灾难也能给社区带来的收益。我们为锡达拉皮兹市建立了两个不同时期的 CGE 模型:一个是 2007 年洪灾之前,另一个是 2015 年洪灾和初期抗灾投资之后。我们的结果表明,与 2007 年相比,2015 年对经济的积极冲击为主要经济指标带来了更大的共同效益。我们的方法说明了共同效益是如何在整个经济中分配的。
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