[Non-Parametric Analysis of Radiation Risks of Mortality among Chernobyl Clean-Up Workers].

Abstract

Analysis of the relationship between dose and mortality from cancer and circulation diseases in the cohort of Chernobyl clean-up workers based on the data from the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry was performed. Medical and dosimetry information on the clean-up workers, males, who got radiation doses from April 26, 1986 to April 26, 1987, which was accumulated from 1992 to 2012, was used for the analysis. The total size of the cohort was 42929 people, 12731 deaths were registered in the cohort, among them 1893 deaths from solid cancers and 5230 deaths were from circulation diseases. An average age of the workers was 39 years in 1992 and the mean dose was 164 mGy. The dose-effect relationship was estimated with the use of non-parametric analysis of survival with regard to concurrence of risks of mortality. The risks were estimated in 6 dose groups of similar size (1-70, 70-130, 130-190, 190-210, 210-230 and.230-1000 mGy). The group "1-70 mGy" was used as control. Estimated dose-effect relationship related to cancers and circulation diseases is described approximately with a linear model, coefficient of determination (the proportion of variability explained by the linear model) for cancers was 23-25% and for circulation diseases - 2-13%. The slope coefficient of the dose-effect relationship normalized to 1 Gy for the ratio of risks for cancers in the linear model was 0.47 (95% CI: -0.77, 1.71), and for circulation diseases it was 0.22 (95% CI: -0.58, 1.02). Risks coefficient (slope coefficient of excess mortality at a dose of 1 Gy) for solid cancers was 1.94 (95% CI: - 3.10, 7.00) x 10(-2) and for circulation diseases it was 0.67 (95% CI: -9.61, 11.00) x 10(-2). 137 deaths from radiation-induced cancers and 47 deaths from circulation diseases were registered during a follow up period.