A Perfect Storm of War, Pandemic, Climate Crises and Global Dis-Governance: Unfolding Implications for Population Dynamics and Policies

G. Martine
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Abstract

The concurrence of powerful negative and unpredictable features in today’s world - war, pandemic and climate crises – coupled with a severe decline in the capacity of multilateralism to deal effectively with such issues, can be qualified as a “perfect storm”. These ongoing global crises constitute the most devastating scenario for humankind since World War II (WWII) and are sure to have enormous short and long-term consequences on population trends. This paper reviews the main aspects of this quandary and offers a preliminary reflection on their broader linkages with population dynamics and policies. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine added to the total of conflict casualties in the world, spiked a drastic increase in food prices that will most affect the world’s poor, and provoked a reshuffling of the geopolitical alignments that further destabilizes multilateralism on several fronts. The COVID-19 pandemic not only increased the number of deaths but also affected fertility. The timely discovery of effective vaccines curtailed the overall disaster, but also revealed and fortified nationalistic politics. The threat of planetary climate crises to existing life is widespread and incontestable. Analysis of its origins exposes dramatic inequalities among social groups, but also reveals the effects of a global economic model that morphed into ultraliberalism. The limitations of multilateralism to deal with these global issues is exemplified in respect to the issue of the climate crises. Ideologically-corrupted pathways to solution suggest that the current global storm may intensify before humankind moves effectively towards a more sustainable and equitable future. The relevance of recurrent population policy alternatives is reviewed in the concluding section.
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战争、流行病、气候危机和全球治理不善的完美风暴:对人口动态和政策的揭示影响
当今世界上强大的消极和不可预测的特点——战争、流行病和气候危机——同时出现,加上多边主义有效处理这些问题的能力严重下降,可以被称为“完美风暴”。这些持续的全球危机构成了自第二次世界大战以来对人类最具破坏性的情景,并肯定会对人口趋势产生巨大的短期和长期影响。本文审查了这一困境的主要方面,并初步反映了它们与人口动态和政策的更广泛联系。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰增加了世界上冲突的总伤亡人数,加剧了食品价格的急剧上涨,这将对世界上的穷人造成最严重的影响,并引发了地缘政治联盟的重新洗牌,进一步破坏了几个方面的多边主义。COVID-19大流行不仅增加了死亡人数,而且影响了生育率。有效疫苗的及时发现减少了总体灾难,但也暴露并强化了民族主义政治。地球气候危机对现有生命的威胁是广泛和无可争辩的。对其起源的分析揭示了社会群体之间的巨大不平等,但也揭示了一种演变为极端自由主义的全球经济模式的影响。多边主义在处理这些全球性问题上的局限性在气候危机问题上得到了体现。意识形态败坏的解决方案表明,在人类有效地走向更可持续、更公平的未来之前,当前的全球风暴可能会加剧。最后一节审查了经常人口政策备选办法的相关性。
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自引率
25.00%
发文量
3
审稿时长
6 weeks
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