Fertility Transition in Brazilian Municipalities: An Exploratory Analysis of Cross-sectional Data in 1991, 2000 and 2010

IF 0.4 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI:10.31406/relap2023.v17.e202219

Guilherme Quaresma, Reinaldo Onofre Dos Santos, Laura Lídia Rodríguez Wong, José Alberto Magno de Carvalho

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Abstract

Understanding the fertility transition in Brazil at the municipal scale provides important support for designing and implementing local policies that incorporate spatial heterogeneity into local sociodemographic dimensions. To analyze the heterogeneity of the fertility transition process among Brazilian municipalities over the last two decades, we rewrite the logistic curve equation, estimate the parameters of the national logistic curve and allocate Brazilian municipalities in the national trend using their own total fertility rates. The lag between most and least developed areas persists in either the North or Northeast Region, opposite to what is observed in the South and Southeast. While some municipalities are beyond their time regarding the national average fertility transition, others are at the beginning of the transition. The very fast fertility decline experienced by late runners in the more recent period results in changes in age composition, configuring a challenge that social decision-makers should face.

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巴西城市的生育率转变:1991年、2000年和2010年横断面数据的探索性分析

在城市尺度上理解巴西的生育率转变为设计和实施将空间异质性纳入当地社会人口维度的地方政策提供了重要支持。为了分析巴西各城市过去二十年生育率转变过程的异质性，我们重新编写了logistic曲线方程，估计了国家logistic曲线的参数，并使用各自的总生育率在国家趋势中分配了巴西各城市。最不发达地区与最不发达地区之间的差距在北部或东北部地区持续存在，而在南部和东南部地区则相反。虽然一些城市已经超出了全国平均生育率过渡的时间，但其他城市正处于过渡的开始。在最近的一段时间里，晚跑者的生育率迅速下降，导致了年龄构成的变化，这是社会决策者应该面对的挑战。

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来源期刊

Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion DEMOGRAPHY-

自引率

25.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 weeks