{"title":"What Are the Short- to Medium-Term Effects of Extreme Weather on the Croatian Economy?","authors":"Tihana Škrinjarić","doi":"10.15179/ces.25.1.2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This research examines the short- to medium-term effects of weather changes on the Croatian economy by observing a simple model of an economy that includes changes in extreme weather events. Monthly data from 1999 to 2022 on the growth of the index of industrial production, inflation, energy inflation, changes in the unemployment rate, and selected weather variables are utilized to estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models. The main finding indicates that inflation is mainly affected by weather shocks, especially drought. This means that monetary policy needs to consider this, mainly due to weather extremes being more frequent and of greater magnitudes. Furthermore, the insurance industry could also benefit from such findings due to the first quantification of such results on Croatian data.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Croatian Economic Survey","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.25.1.2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This research examines the short- to medium-term effects of weather changes on the Croatian economy by observing a simple model of an economy that includes changes in extreme weather events. Monthly data from 1999 to 2022 on the growth of the index of industrial production, inflation, energy inflation, changes in the unemployment rate, and selected weather variables are utilized to estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models. The main finding indicates that inflation is mainly affected by weather shocks, especially drought. This means that monetary policy needs to consider this, mainly due to weather extremes being more frequent and of greater magnitudes. Furthermore, the insurance industry could also benefit from such findings due to the first quantification of such results on Croatian data.
期刊介绍：
The journal Croatian Economic Survey is a Diamond Open Access journal defined by the following characteristics: -Peer review: the article goes through the journal''s process of a double-blind peer review. -Public access: both the author and the public have immediate access to the final, published version of the article. -Funding model: both the author and the public pay no fee to the journal. The journal is financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Croatia. Croatian Economic Survey is an English-language, peer-reviewed scholarly journal published by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb in Croatia and financed by the Croatian Ministry of Science and Education. The journal aims to serve as a forum for academics and practitioners by publishing high-quality research papers on topics in all areas of economics. Special focus is given to post-socialist Europe. Comparative studies are especially encouraged, since these countries share a similar socio-economic background and comparative studies offer a valuable source of insight for policy formulation as well as a basis for competitive benchmarking. The journal welcomes empirical and policy-oriented papers relevant to a broader international audience. Contributions need not be limited solely to economics; submissions from other related disciplines are encouraged.
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