This paper examines the employment intensity of economic growth in Southern Europe during the so-called “post-crisis” recovery years. A labor demand estimation model based on multidimensional panel data from 2010 to 2019 was utilized. Findings from our macroeconomic analysis of eight different industries refute the predictions of neoclassical labor theory in the region. The results further indicate the presence of jobless growth in the areas of overall employment, fulltime employment, and overall employees. They also signal that economic growth may have created job opportunities in part-time and youth employment, and among temporary employees, rather than full-time jobs. The paper links these findings to particular characteristics of the regional labor market, discusses their implications for understanding unemployment and formulates recommendations for future policy.
{"title":"Employment Intensity of Economic Growth in Southern Europe: Evidence from Multidimensional Panel Data","authors":"Selda Görkey, Aslı Taşbaşı","doi":"10.15179/ces.25.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.25.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the employment intensity of economic growth in Southern Europe during the so-called “post-crisis” recovery years. A labor demand estimation model based on multidimensional panel data from 2010 to 2019 was utilized. Findings from our macroeconomic analysis of eight different industries refute the predictions of neoclassical labor theory in the region. The results further indicate the presence of jobless growth in the areas of overall employment, fulltime employment, and overall employees. They also signal that economic growth may have created job opportunities in part-time and youth employment, and among temporary employees, rather than full-time jobs. The paper links these findings to particular characteristics of the regional labor market, discusses their implications for understanding unemployment and formulates recommendations for future policy.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46225691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research examines the short- to medium-term effects of weather changes on the Croatian economy by observing a simple model of an economy that includes changes in extreme weather events. Monthly data from 1999 to 2022 on the growth of the index of industrial production, inflation, energy inflation, changes in the unemployment rate, and selected weather variables are utilized to estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models. The main finding indicates that inflation is mainly affected by weather shocks, especially drought. This means that monetary policy needs to consider this, mainly due to weather extremes being more frequent and of greater magnitudes. Furthermore, the insurance industry could also benefit from such findings due to the first quantification of such results on Croatian data.
{"title":"What Are the Short- to Medium-Term Effects of Extreme Weather on the Croatian Economy?","authors":"Tihana Škrinjarić","doi":"10.15179/ces.25.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.25.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"This research examines the short- to medium-term effects of weather changes on the Croatian economy by observing a simple model of an economy that includes changes in extreme weather events. Monthly data from 1999 to 2022 on the growth of the index of industrial production, inflation, energy inflation, changes in the unemployment rate, and selected weather variables are utilized to estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models. The main finding indicates that inflation is mainly affected by weather shocks, especially drought. This means that monetary policy needs to consider this, mainly due to weather extremes being more frequent and of greater magnitudes. Furthermore, the insurance industry could also benefit from such findings due to the first quantification of such results on Croatian data.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41859249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The main purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness (TO), and the Asian and global financial crisis on environmental quality based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis on panel data of 32 Asian economies over the 1991–2019 period. Our study supports the EKC hypothesis, implying that economic growth increases emissions to a certain point, after which growth helps reduce carbon emissions. By employing several panel data econometric estimation techniques (such as ordinary least squares, fixed effects models, and difference-generalized method of moments estimations), the study also shows robust findings that FDI could reduce carbon emissions in the Asian region by welcoming environmentally friendly technology and know-how into the economy. However, though the study finds that financial crises reduce emissions in Asian countries, the increase of TO in this region leads to an increase in emissions and causes of environmental degradation. Thus, to ensure environmental sustainability, Asian policymakers should formulate lucrative policies to attract FDI, and trade policies should also be revised.
{"title":"Dynamic Effects of Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade Openness on Environmental Quality: Evidence From Asian Economies","authors":"R. Hossain, Chandan Kumar Roy, Rima Akter","doi":"10.15179/ces.25.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.25.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness (TO), and the Asian and global financial crisis on environmental quality based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis on panel data of 32 Asian economies over the 1991–2019 period. Our study supports the EKC hypothesis, implying that economic growth increases emissions to a certain point, after which growth helps reduce carbon emissions. By employing several panel data econometric estimation techniques (such as ordinary least squares, fixed effects models, and difference-generalized method of moments estimations), the study also shows robust findings that FDI could reduce carbon emissions in the Asian region by welcoming environmentally friendly technology and know-how into the economy. However, though the study finds that financial crises reduce emissions in Asian countries, the increase of TO in this region leads to an increase in emissions and causes of environmental degradation. Thus, to ensure environmental sustainability, Asian policymakers should formulate lucrative policies to attract FDI, and trade policies should also be revised.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44595782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the effect of the change in the economic structure on economic growth in Visegrad and South Caucasia. The Shift Share Analysis (SSA) method measures the direct effects of structural change on productivity growth. Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) regressions evaluate the indirect effect of the advanced sectors on economic growth. SSA finds that within sector productivity is the main driver of economic growth in both regions and the manufacturing sector is the engine of within sector productivity growth in Visegrad countries. Expansion of the modern business services sector produced a positive reallocation effect in all countries but the lack of growth dynamism in the productivity of this sector undermined the positive reallocation effect in Hungary and Slovakia. The FMOLS regressions show that manufacturing export has a positive effect on economic growth while business service production does not. The general structure of Visegrad economies is similar to advanced countries and they can achieve further development by upgrading their production within advanced sectors while South Caucasian countries can develop their economies by expanding the high-value sectors and channeling the excess labor in low-value sectors to relatively higher value activities. Both strategies require investment in human capital and upgrading their domestic capacity.
{"title":"Structural Change and Economic Growth in Visegrad and South Caucasian Countries","authors":"Vusal Ahmadov","doi":"10.15179/ces.24.2.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.24.2.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of the change in the economic structure on economic growth in Visegrad and South Caucasia. The Shift Share Analysis (SSA) method measures the direct effects of structural change on productivity growth. Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) regressions evaluate the indirect effect of the advanced sectors on economic growth. SSA finds that within sector productivity is the main driver of economic growth in both regions and the manufacturing sector is the engine of within sector productivity growth in Visegrad countries. Expansion of the modern business services sector produced a positive reallocation effect in all countries but the lack of growth dynamism in the productivity of this sector undermined the positive reallocation effect in Hungary and Slovakia. The FMOLS regressions show that manufacturing export has a positive effect on economic growth while business service production does not. The general structure of Visegrad economies is similar to advanced countries and they can achieve further development by upgrading their production within advanced sectors while South Caucasian countries can develop their economies by expanding the high-value sectors and channeling the excess labor in low-value sectors to relatively higher value activities. Both strategies require investment in human capital and upgrading their domestic capacity.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41365620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the effect of bank concentration and financial development on economic volatility in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Using the GMM estimator, we cover the 2000–2017 period. Based on both linear and non-linear estimations, we find no significant impact of bank concentration on economic volatility. By contrast, financial development reduces economic volatility. Moreover, the relationship between concentration and volatility is influenced by financial development. Considering this, policymakers should put more emphasis on developing the financial sector than controlling bank concentrations. We find that our findings remain robust in the face of different specifications and proxies used to measure bank concentration and financial development.
{"title":"Bank Concentration and Economic Volatility in the OIC Countries: The Role of Financial Development","authors":"Edib Smolo","doi":"10.15179/ces.24.2.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.24.2.3","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effect of bank concentration and financial development on economic volatility in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Using the GMM estimator, we cover the 2000–2017 period. Based on both linear and non-linear estimations, we find no significant impact of bank concentration on economic volatility. By contrast, financial development reduces economic volatility. Moreover, the relationship between concentration and volatility is influenced by financial development. Considering this, policymakers should put more emphasis on developing the financial sector than controlling bank concentrations. We find that our findings remain robust in the face of different specifications and proxies used to measure bank concentration and financial development.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43852222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this paper is to understand who the unregistered micro-performers of business activity (MPBA) in North Macedonia are and why they decided to stay informal. We rely on a specifically designed Survey on Unregistered Micro- Enterprises collected from 151 unregistered MPBAs in May 2022. Results reveal that most common forms of unregistered MPBAs include: street sellers, individual farmers, handicraftsmen, providers of personal beauty services, painters, plasterers, bakers, lessons instructors, motor vehicle mechanics and housekeepers and cleaners. Costs of becoming a registered company, particularly taxes, social contributions, parafiscal charges and the cost for accounting, have been identified as an important impediment to registration. On the other hand, access to bigger customers, to more reliable sellers of inputs and to new markets have been identified as large benefits of formalization. The second motivation is the access to social protection and pension in the old age. Costs of staying informal have limited power in motivating registration.
{"title":"Unregistered Micro-Performers of Business Activity: The “Who” and “Why” in North Macedonia","authors":"Marjan Petreski, Blagica Petreski","doi":"10.15179/ces.24.2.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.24.2.2","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to understand who the unregistered micro-performers of business activity (MPBA) in North Macedonia are and why they decided to stay informal. We rely on a specifically designed Survey on Unregistered Micro- Enterprises collected from 151 unregistered MPBAs in May 2022. Results reveal that most common forms of unregistered MPBAs include: street sellers, individual farmers, handicraftsmen, providers of personal beauty services, painters, plasterers, bakers, lessons instructors, motor vehicle mechanics and housekeepers and cleaners. Costs of becoming a registered company, particularly taxes, social contributions, parafiscal charges and the cost for accounting, have been identified as an important impediment to registration. On the other hand, access to bigger customers, to more reliable sellers of inputs and to new markets have been identified as large benefits of formalization. The second motivation is the access to social protection and pension in the old age. Costs of staying informal have limited power in motivating registration.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48480255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After the global financial crisis of 2007, macroprudential policy instruments have gained in recognition as a crucial tool for enhancing financial stability. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and microprudential policy operate with a different toolkit and focus on achieving goals other than the stability of the financial system as a whole. In ligh of this, a fourth policy – namely macroprudential policy – is required to mitigate and prevent shocks that could destabilize the financial system as a whole and compromise financial stability. The aim of this paper is to contrast macroprudential policy with other economic policies and explain why other economic policies are unable to attain financial stability, which in turn justifies the need for a separate macroprudential policy, the ultimate goal whereof is precisely financial stability of the financial system as a whole. Our research results based on the descriptive research method indicate that, in order to prevent future financial crises, it is indispensable to combine both the microprudential and the macroprudential approach to financial stability. This is because the causes of the crises are often such that they cannot be prevented or mitigated by relying only on microprudential or only on macroprudential policy instruments.
{"title":"Macroprudential Policy Versus Other Economic Policies","authors":"Eva Lorenčič, Mejra Festić","doi":"10.15179/ces.23.2.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.23.2.2","url":null,"abstract":"After the global financial crisis of 2007, macroprudential policy instruments have gained in recognition as a crucial tool for enhancing financial stability. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and microprudential policy operate with a different toolkit and focus on achieving goals other than the stability of the financial system as a whole. In ligh of this, a fourth policy – namely macroprudential policy – is required to mitigate and prevent shocks that could destabilize the financial system as a whole and compromise financial stability. The aim of this paper is to contrast macroprudential policy with other economic policies and explain why other economic policies are unable to attain financial stability, which in turn justifies the need for a separate macroprudential policy, the ultimate goal whereof is precisely financial stability of the financial system as a whole. Our research results based on the descriptive research method indicate that, in order to prevent future financial crises, it is indispensable to combine both the microprudential and the macroprudential approach to financial stability. This is because the causes of the crises are often such that they cannot be prevented or mitigated by relying only on microprudential or only on macroprudential policy instruments.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42551643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Service design and business model design are considered in the literature as separate approaches to value creation for the customer. User experience, as a concept that represents a holistic emotional and meaningful result of the interaction with information technologies, is nowadays an important ingredient of the customer value. This paper aims to theoretically set the ground for using the business model concept as a systemic tool in service design that will support the design for user experience. Against this background, we ask: Can the business model concept successfully represent a system that is required for the value proposition-based service exchange? We investigate this question based on service-dominant logic and accompanying service science, and semantically compare elements of the service system, service ecosystem, and ten service science basic concepts. The analysis shows that the business model canvas, the chosen model for business model representation, satisfies the systemic perspective and can erve as a system platform for integrating with service design.
{"title":"Business Model Enriched With User Experience, as a Systemic Tool in Service Design","authors":"Jadranka Musulin, V. Strahonja","doi":"10.15179/ces.23.2.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.23.2.3","url":null,"abstract":"Service design and business model design are considered in the literature as separate approaches to value creation for the customer. User experience, as a concept that represents a holistic emotional and meaningful result of the interaction with information technologies, is nowadays an important ingredient of the customer value. This paper aims to theoretically set the ground for using the business model concept as a systemic tool in service design that will support the design for user experience. Against this background, we ask: Can the business model concept successfully represent a system that is required for the value proposition-based service exchange? We investigate this question based on service-dominant logic and accompanying service science, and semantically compare elements of the service system, service ecosystem, and ten service science basic concepts. The analysis shows that the business model canvas, the chosen model for business model representation, satisfies the systemic perspective and can erve as a system platform for integrating with service design.","PeriodicalId":42059,"journal":{"name":"Croatian Economic Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41747025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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