Trends shaping sustainable post-pandemic development of the V4 region in turbulent times until 2030

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Foresight Pub Date : 2023-06-09 DOI:10.1108/fs-10-2022-0135
Judit Gáspár, Klaudia Gubová, É. Hideg, Maciej Piotr Jagaciak, L. Macková, A. Márton, Weronika Rafał, A. Sacio-Szymańska, Eva Šerá Komlossyová
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Abstract

Purpose The paper evaluates trends shaping the post-pandemic reality. The framework adopted is a case study of the V4 region (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) that illustrates broader trends, their direction of change and their influence on the entire region. This paper aims to identify key trends and analyse how they can facilitate or hinder sustainable development. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on a multidisciplinary literature review and an online real-time Delphi study carried out across four European countries. Findings The results indicate that the influence of negative trends on sustainability is much stronger than that of positive ones. Concerning the trends’ driving factors, the blockers of negative trends have a much higher influence on sustainability than the blockers of positive ones. The study shows that the most significant trends affecting sustainability are distributed throughout various fields of human activity, including geopolitics, social issues, education, the environment, technology and health. Practical implications The findings presented below can be used primarily by decision makers from the V4 region, who are responsible for crafting strategies regarding post-COVID recovery. The study illustrates trends that V4 countries and other European Union member states might be facing in the future and analyses how they relate to sustainability. The conclusions indicate that the most effective path to the desired level of sustainability is one that incorporates policies built around the blockers of negative trends. Originality/value The importance of this study lies in its focus on countries that had previously received little attention in scientific analyses. The paper shows their possible developmental pathways and sheds light on the framework of integrated foresight and its applications in sustainability-related areas.
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到2030年,V4地区在动荡时期形成可持续疫情后发展的趋势
目的本文评估了影响疫情后现实的趋势。所采用的框架是V4地区(波兰、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克和匈牙利)的案例研究,说明了更广泛的趋势、变化方向及其对整个地区的影响。本文旨在确定主要趋势,并分析它们如何促进或阻碍可持续发展。设计/方法论/方法本文基于多学科文献综述和在四个欧洲国家进行的在线实时德尔菲研究。研究结果表明,消极趋势对可持续性的影响远大于积极趋势。关于趋势的驱动因素,消极趋势的阻碍因素对可持续性的影响远高于积极趋势的阻碍者。研究表明,影响可持续性的最重要趋势分布在人类活动的各个领域,包括地缘政治、社会问题、教育、环境、技术和健康。实际意义V4地区的决策者主要可以使用以下研究结果,他们负责制定新冠肺炎后康复的策略。该研究说明了V4国家和其他欧盟成员国未来可能面临的趋势,并分析了它们与可持续性的关系。结论表明,实现所需可持续性水平的最有效途径是纳入围绕负面趋势阻碍因素制定的政策。原创性/价值这项研究的重要性在于它关注的是以前在科学分析中很少受到关注的国家。本文展示了它们可能的发展途径,并阐明了综合展望的框架及其在可持续发展相关领域的应用。
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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