Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Resources Policy Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104062
Noha Razek , Valentina Galvani , Surya Rajan , Brian McQuinn
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Abstract

Recent changes in global petroleum markets have driven the debate regarding the use of strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) as a price management tool during periods marked by extreme price volatility. We examine the price management role of the U.S. SPR under typical market conditions and in extreme emergencies. Furthermore, we discuss the White House's hypotheses that (a) boosted Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) production and releases from the U.S. SPR result in a negative pressure on U.S. gasoline inflation, and (b) crude oil releases from the U.S. SPR helps balance the global oil market. The threshold cointegration results indicate that U.S. SPR releases impact neither OPEC production nor imported input prices. We apply a hybrid open-economy Phillips curve to model gasoline inflation, accounting for backward- and forward-looking price settings, domestic and global slackness, and energy security. We distinguish between normal-, super-, and hyper-backwardation and -contango oil markets using threshold cointegration and regression techniques. Our results demonstrate that SPR releases and OPEC output increases generally decrease inflation, with a crucial exception being the hyper-backwardation market, as seen in 2021–2022. This period was characterized by severely constrained global supply buffers, including OPEC's spare capacity, exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. For this period, we conclude that (1) the impact of OPEC production changes on gasoline inflation would be negligible, (2) excess domestic demand relative to domestic supply raises concerns about domestic energy security, and (3) the unprecedentedly large SPR drawdowns are likely to have caused the market to panic and contributed to gasoline price increases, contrary to arguments suggesting that the 2022 releases eased domestic gasoline prices. We conclude that the SPR is an ineffective price control mechanism during crises and may not have the strategic value previously thought in an extremely tight oil market.

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美国的战略石油储备能否安抚因俄乌冲突而加剧的紧张市场?
最近全球石油市场的变化引发了关于在价格极端波动时期使用战略石油储备(SPRs)作为价格管理工具的争论。我们研究了在典型市场条件和极端紧急情况下美国特别储备的价格管理作用。此外,我们还讨论了白宫的假设,即(a)提高了石油输出国组织(OPEC)的产量,美国SPR的释放对美国汽油通胀产生了负面压力,(b)美国SPR的原油释放有助于平衡全球石油市场。阈值协整结果表明,美国SPR释放既不影响欧佩克产量,也不影响进口投入价格。我们应用混合开放经济菲利普斯曲线来模拟汽油通胀,考虑到向后和前瞻性的价格设置、国内和全球疲软以及能源安全。我们使用阈值协整和回归技术区分正常、超、超现货溢价和期货溢价石油市场。我们的研究结果表明,SPR的释放和OPEC产量的增加通常会降低通胀,但一个关键的例外是超现货溢价市场,如2021-2022年所见。这一时期的特点是全球供应缓冲严重受限,包括欧佩克的闲置产能,俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突加剧了这一问题。在此期间,我们得出的结论是:(1)欧佩克产量变化对汽油通胀的影响可以忽略不计;(2)相对于国内供应的国内需求过剩引发了对国内能源安全的担忧;(3)与认为2022年石油储备释放缓解了国内汽油价格的观点相反,史无前例的SPR大幅下降可能导致市场恐慌,并导致汽油价格上涨。我们的结论是,在危机期间,SPR是一种无效的价格控制机制,在石油市场极度紧张的情况下,它可能没有之前认为的战略价值。
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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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