Elevated heat indices resulting from hurricane-related defoliation: a case study

Abstract

Defoliation caused by strong tropical cyclones can modify the partitioning of incident solar radiation between the sensible, latent, and substrate heat fluxes. While previous work has shown hurricane defoliation to warm near-surface air temperature along its track, this study more directly contextualizes the warming to human heat stress and exposure via the heat index (HI). For this case study, the spatial extent and temporal persistence of defoliation produced by Hurricane Laura (2020) in southwestern Louisiana was characterized using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The defoliated land surface was then assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 and compared to a control, normal-foliage simulation for the 30 days following landfall. Over southwest Louisiana, the largest HI increase occurred at 0600 UTC (1:00 AM LT) with an average increase of + 0.25 °C, and the exposure time to HI ≥ 30 °C increased by 8.1% after accounting for the defoliated landscape. Meanwhile, Cameron, Louisiana, the site of Laura’s landfall where defoliation was most severe, cumulatively experienced an extra 33 h of HI values exceeding 26 °C, while mean HI increased by 1.2 °C at 0300 UTC. Additional WRF experiments were performed with altered “landfall” years of 2017 and 2018 to determine the sensitivity of defoliation-driven HI changes to the ambient synoptic conditions. While synoptic conditions modulated the magnitude of increase, HIs nonetheless experienced statistically significant increases in both hypothetical “landfall” years. Such findings are valuable for emergency managers and community health officials because overnight minimum temperatures are a strong indicator of heat mortality.