G20 and Global Risk Analysis

E. Gurvich, I. Prilepskiy
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Abstract

This article studies the work carried out by the Group of 20 (G20) between the global crises of 2008¬–09 and 2020. Active G20 efforts to ensure financial stability and control imbalances helped to mitigate vulnerabilities to crises of the 2008–09 type. Other key achievements included the transition of several G20 members to market-determined exchange rates and the Standard for Automatic Exchange of Financial Account Information as a part of the effort to combat base erosion and profit shifting. However, the G20 proved unprepared for the 2020 crisis, even though G20 leaders had noted the risks linked to infectious diseases in 2015. During the period between the crises, the G20 failed to establish an effective system for analyzing global risks. Indeed, its analysis was mainly adaptive as opposed to forward-looking; no mechanism was formed for controlling policies to manage risks. G20 members’ involvement in the analysis was inadequate, reflecting the consistent pattern of lower incentives for cooperation in the context of comparatively benign global economic conjunctures. Currently, however, the importance of managing global systemic risks is obvious and is reflected in the G20 Action Plan for supporting the global economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. This article presents recommendations for the key elements of this risk management (systematic identification of most probable/destructive vulnerabilities; development of strategies to minimize critical risks and mitigate their possible consequences; monitoring for early warning signs of the most critical vulnerabilities; organizing prompt consultations and adopting swift measures in response to the materialization of globally important risks), including mechanisms for members’ self-accountability and collaboration with international organizations. Management of systemic risks should start with resolving the challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic: improving public health response systems; promoting structural economic transformations while ensuring prompt return to full employment; and striking the right balance between economic stimulus and macroeconomic stability.
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G20与全球风险分析
本文研究了二十国集团(G20)在2008 -09年全球危机至2020年期间所开展的工作。G20在确保金融稳定和控制失衡方面的积极努力,有助于减轻2008-09年那种危机的脆弱性。其他重要成就包括一些G20成员国向市场决定汇率的过渡,以及《金融账户信息自动交换标准》,作为打击税基侵蚀和利润转移努力的一部分。然而,事实证明,20国集团对2020年的危机毫无准备,尽管20国集团领导人在2015年就指出了与传染病有关的风险。在两次危机之间,G20未能建立一个有效的全球风险分析体系。的确,它的分析主要是适应性的,而不是前瞻性的;未形成风险管理政策调控机制。二十国集团成员参与分析的力度不够,反映出在全球经济形势相对良性的背景下,合作动力一贯较低。当前,管理全球系统性风险的重要性是显而易见的,这体现在《二十国集团应对新冠肺炎疫情支持全球经济行动计划》中。本文提出了风险管理关键要素的建议(系统地识别最可能/最具破坏性的脆弱性;制定战略以尽量减少严重风险并减轻其可能的后果;监测最严重脆弱性的早期预警信号;组织迅速磋商并采取迅速措施,以应对全球重大风险的出现,包括成员自我问责和与国际组织合作的机制。系统性风险管理应从解决与COVID-19大流行相关的挑战着手:改善公共卫生应对系统;促进经济结构转型,同时确保迅速恢复充分就业;在经济刺激和宏观经济稳定之间取得适当的平衡。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.
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