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Integration Strategies of the Post-Soviet Countries – Analysis Using the Social Graph Approach 后苏联国家的一体化战略——基于社会图谱的分析
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-05
Timur Alyev, E. Stoyanova, E. Chimiris
Authors’ Guidelines Peer Reviewing Publishing ethics Subscription News and Announcements Manuscript requirements Contacts ISSN (Print) 1996-7845 ISSN (Online) 2542-2081 Contacts: Postal address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, Russia 101000 National Research University Higher School of Economics International Organisations Research Journal (IORJ) editors office Actual address: office 110, 47/7, bld. 1 Bolshaya Ordynka, Moscow Tel.: +7 495 772-95-90 ext. 23147 E-mail: iorj@hse.ru Indexed in Search text Отправить the website and texts of articles by authors by title (or part of title) by keyword Timur Alyev 1, Elena Stoyanova2, Ekaterina Chimiris2 1 VAVT, 6A Vorob'evskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285, Russia 2 VAVT, 6A Vorob'evskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285, Russia Integration Strategies of the Post-Soviet Countries – Analysis Using the Social Graph Approach 2023. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 127–150 [issue contents] In connection with the current trends restructuring the global world order, the task of creating regional zones of trust, including in the format of integration trade associations between states, is coming to the fore. These trends play an important role in the foreign policy of states, including Russia. In this regard, this article analyzes the strategies of the states of the post-Soviet space in relation to regional economic integration. The article uses the method of constructing a social graph. Data on the concluded regional trade agreements between the states of the post-Soviet bloc with trading partners was analyzed. The model was also tested and compared against data on value chains and investment flows. Based on this analysis, a model for the distribution of countries' strategies for regional economic integration was created along two parameters: active/passive and centrifugal/centripetal. Four variants of strategies were identified: active centrifugal, active centripetal, passive centrifugal, and passive centripetal. The article presents the results of checking the obtained model and draws conclusions regarding the prospects for the development of regional economic integration in the post-Soviet space.
作者指南同行评审出版伦理订阅新闻和公告稿件要求联系方式ISSN(印刷)1996-7845 ISSN(在线)2542-2081联系方式:邮政地址:20,俄罗斯莫斯科,101000国立研究型大学高等经济学院国际组织研究杂志编辑办公室实际地址:110号办公室,47/7号。1 Bolshaya Ordynka,莫斯科电话:+7 495 772-95-90 ext. 23147 E-mail: iorj@hse.ru在搜索文本中索引Отправить网站和作者文章的文本按标题(或标题的一部分)通过关键词Timur Alyev 1, Elena Stoyanova2, Ekaterina Chimiris2 VAVT, 6A Vorob'evskoe shosse,莫斯科,11985,俄罗斯2 VAVT, 6A Vorob'evskoe shosse,莫斯科,11985,俄罗斯后苏联国家的整合战略-使用社会图谱方法分析2023。18卷。。1号。P. 127-150[本刊内容]鉴于当前全球世界秩序结构调整的趋势,建立区域信任区域的任务,包括以国家间一体化贸易协会的形式出现在人们面前。这些趋势在包括俄罗斯在内的各国的外交政策中发挥着重要作用。在此基础上,本文分析了后苏联空间国家在区域经济一体化中的战略。本文采用构建社会图谱的方法。分析了后苏联集团国家与贸易伙伴之间缔结的区域贸易协定的数据。该模型还与价值链和投资流的数据进行了测试和比较。在此基础上,根据主动/被动和离心/向心两个参数,建立了各国区域经济一体化战略分布模型。确定了四种策略:主动离心式、主动向心式、被动离心式和被动向心式。本文对模型进行了检验,并对后苏联空间区域经济一体化的发展前景进行了展望。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Risks and Financial Stability: The Role of Central Banks and Implications for Russia 气候风险与金融稳定:中央银行的作用及其对俄罗斯的影响
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-09
P. Levakov, V. Barinova, A. Polbin
One of the key challenges of modern times is climate change, which is occurring at an unprecedented pace. This phenomenon also affects the financial system through increased risks. In response to rising financial risks, central banks around the world are becoming more involved in climate policy. Within the framework of this article an analysis based on modern scientific literature is made to evaluate the participation of central banks in preventing climate change and stabilizing the financial system, as well as to assess the effectiveness of their policies. The article identifies potential connections between global warming on the financial system and evaluates this relationship based on the analysis of empirical evidence and mathematical models. In addition, the role of central banks in attracting green investments is estimated. The reaction of central banks to climate change and the destabilization of the financial system in developed and developing countries is considered within the article; in particular, the difference between the instruments used is analyzed. It is concluded that, currently, a more active climate policy is being pursued by the central banks of the developing countries. Finally, based on the analysis of international practices, recommendations are made for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as it is exposed to significant transitional climate risks. The key recommendations include the need to differentiate the value of collateral assets and regulatory requirements for the structure of financial institutions' asset portfolios, depending on the risk of a decrease in their value due to the global community's fight against global warming and climate change.
现代的主要挑战之一是气候变化,它正以前所未有的速度发生。这种现象还通过增加风险影响金融系统。为了应对不断上升的金融风险,世界各地的央行越来越多地参与气候政策。在本文的框架内,基于现代科学文献进行了分析,以评估中央银行在预防气候变化和稳定金融系统方面的参与程度,并评估其政策的有效性。本文确定了全球变暖对金融系统的潜在联系,并基于经验证据和数学模型的分析对这种关系进行了评估。此外,还估算了中央银行在吸引绿色投资方面的作用。本条考虑了发达国家和发展中国家中央银行对气候变化和金融系统不稳定的反应;特别是分析了所用仪器之间的差异。结论是,目前,发展中国家的中央银行正在推行更加积极的气候政策。最后,根据对国际惯例的分析,为俄罗斯联邦中央银行提出了建议,因为它面临着重大的过渡气候风险。关键建议包括需要区分抵押资产的价值,以及金融机构资产组合结构的监管要求,这取决于全球社会应对全球变暖和气候变化导致其价值下降的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Why multilateralism is losing ground in audiovisual services in the WTO 为什么多边主义在世贸组织的视听服务领域正在失去地位
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-04
O. Biryukova
Trade in audiovisual services is both aimed at economic purposes and impacts social values of host countries. That is why this sphere has traditionally been one of the most difficult issues in the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations and an area of opposed approaches of the US and the EU. The author demonstrates that measures related to cultural policy can inherently shape protectionist trade barriers for support of national companies. Rapid development of technology has expanded the possibilities for the transmission and distribution of audio and visual content. At the same time, existing multilateral trade rules as well as applied classification for audiovisual services are becoming increasingly irrelevant. The article concludes that, on the one hand, the growing market for audiovisual services requires more precise rules for its cross-border trade, on the other hand, the trend towards the formation of regional blocks with specific regulations complicates negotiations (or even common understanding) on the rules for trade in audiovisual services under the WTO.
视听服务贸易既以经济目的为目的,又影响东道国的社会价值。这就是为什么这一领域历来是世界贸易组织(WTO)谈判中最棘手的问题之一,也是美国和欧盟针锋相对的领域。作者证明,与文化政策相关的措施会在本质上形成保护主义贸易壁垒,以支持本国公司。技术的迅速发展扩大了传播和分发视听内容的可能性。与此同时,现有的多边贸易规则以及适用于视听服务的分类正变得越来越无关紧要。文章的结论是,一方面,不断增长的音像服务市场需要更精确的跨境贸易规则,另一方面,具有特定规则的区域集团形成的趋势使WTO下音像服务贸易规则的谈判(甚至共识)复杂化。
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引用次数: 0
The Conflict Between ECOWAS and Mali: International Legal and Political Aspects 西非经共体与马里之间的冲突:国际法律和政治方面
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-07
Yao N. Adu, A. Mezyaev
In recent decades, Mali has faced an unprecedented political and economic crisis due to coups, terrorist and separatist threats, and international sanctions. The role of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as a subregional organization involved in the management of the Malian conflict is paramount. However, the influence of France in decision-making in the context of sanctions imposed on Mali by ECOWAS affected the authority of the West African organization. The role of France as a former colonial power in this crisis is indisputable in the context of its geopolitical engagement with its former colonies in Africa and particularly in West Africa. This article analyzes the course of the crisis, the role of the actors involved (ECOWAS, Mali, and France), and the political and legal scopes of the crisis. On the basis of structural, qualitative, and quantitative methods of assessment and comparative analyses of the ECOWAS Authority’s decisions, their legal and political meanings, the political situation on the ground, the history of conflict management in neighbouring countries such as Cote d’Ivoire and other West African states by ECOWAS, the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN), and the role of France in the crisis, the authors conclude that the ECOWAS Authority has played an important role in restoring political order in Mali. However, the authors note the failure of the Authority to reach a political agreement. Moreover, the authors agree that the ECOWAS Authority has reacted ultra vires to the Malian crisis vis-a-vis the power that is conferred by the ECOWAS instruments. And, the Authority’s blunder was not without French interference.
近几十年来,由于政变、恐怖主义和分离主义威胁以及国际制裁,马里面临着前所未有的政治和经济危机。西非国家经济共同体(西非经共体)作为一个参与管理马里冲突的次区域组织,其作用至关重要。然而,在西非经共体对马里实施制裁的背景下,法国在决策方面的影响力影响了西非组织的权威。法国作为前殖民大国在这场危机中的作用是无可争辩的,因为它与非洲,特别是西非的前殖民地进行了地缘政治接触。本文分析了危机的过程、相关行为者(西非经共体、马里和法国)的作用,以及危机的政治和法律范围。在对西非经共体管理局的决定、其法律和政治意义、当地政治局势、西非经共体、非洲联盟和联合国在科特迪瓦等邻国和其他西非国家管理冲突的历史进行结构、定性和定量评估和比较分析的基础上,以及法国在危机中的作用,作者得出结论,西非经共体管理局在恢复马里政治秩序方面发挥了重要作用。然而,提交人指出,管理局未能达成政治协议。此外,提交人同意,西非经共体权力机构对马里危机的反应越权,而西非经共体文书赋予了权力。而且,管理局的失误并非没有法国的干涉。
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引用次数: 1
Opportunities and Constraints for G20 Leadership in Data Governance: Is There a Chance for Convergence in Approaches? 二十国集团数据治理领导层的机遇和制约因素:方法是否有趋同的机会?
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-01
M. Larionova, Andrei Shelepov
Data is an infinite resource, a new form of capital in the knowledge economy. In absence of data regulation, global technological corporations seek to expand their influence at each link in data chains and use their market power to build monopolies. Data can generate not only profits for tech giants but also social value; however, market forces by themselves will not create data-based public goods. For this, government actions are needed at the county level, and interstate and multilateral institutional cooperation is required at the international level. To date, despite numerous initiatives to establish coordination mechanisms and data regulation, cooperation on data governance is highly fragmented and gridlocked due to contradictions and tough competition between players. One of the key disagreements is related to the regulation of cross-border data flows. The article explores contradictions between the regulatory practices of the central actors in the digital economy, the U.S., the European Union (EU) and China in the first place, and the approaches they promote in international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Group of G20 (G20), the Group of 7 (G7), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In particular, the authors look at the G20’s agenda on data governance and the initiative on free data flow with trust and consider its challenges and the risks of cooperation stagnation. The conclusion presents possible scenarios for future cooperation on data governance, their risks and perspectives, including the establishment of the Digital Economy and Data Governance Board by the G20, the G7’s initiative on shaping global digital order, deepening of cooperation on data governance within the G7 and the OECD, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) proposal on building a multilevel, distributed polycentric data-governance model with the UN playing a central role. The authors conclude with a proposal on cooperation within BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) aimed at shaping inclusive multilateral data governance.
数据是一种无限的资源,是知识经济中一种新的资本形式。在缺乏数据监管的情况下,全球科技公司试图扩大其在数据链每个环节的影响力,并利用其市场力量建立垄断。数据不仅能为科技巨头带来利润,还能带来社会价值;然而,市场力量本身不会创造出基于数据的公共产品。为此,需要县一级的政府行动,需要国际一级的州际和多边机构合作。迄今为止,尽管有许多建立协调机制和数据监管的举措,但由于参与者之间的矛盾和激烈竞争,数据治理合作高度分散和陷入僵局。其中一个主要分歧与跨境数据流的监管有关。本文首先探讨了数字经济中的核心参与者美国、欧盟(EU)和中国的监管实践与他们在世界贸易组织(WTO)、二十国集团(G20)、七国集团(G7),以及经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)。作者特别关注二十国集团关于数据治理的议程和关于数据自由流动的倡议,并考虑其挑战和合作停滞的风险。结论提出了未来数据治理合作的可能场景、风险和前景,包括二十国集团成立数字经济和数据治理委员会、七国集团关于塑造全球数字秩序的倡议、深化七国集团和经合组织在数据治理方面的合作、,以及联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)关于建立由联合国发挥核心作用的多层次、分布式多中心数据治理模式的提案。作者最后提出了一项关于金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)内部合作的建议,旨在塑造包容性的多边数据治理。
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引用次数: 0
Transformation of the “Climate Club” Concept: From Theory to Practice (Review) “气候俱乐部”理念的转变:从理论到实践(综述)
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-08
I. Popova
The concept of a "climate club" has been presented by researchers as an attempt to ensure progress in the achievement of the Paris goals through the adoption of more ambitious targets and restrictive measures, including carbon pricing, by a group of countries, preferably those responsible for a larger share of global greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretical models are virtually impossible to implement in practice, so attempts have been made to develop club configurations that take into account political, economic and institutional realities. Based on this body of work, the first concepts of clubs that can be realistically implemented are presented. They differ in terms of membership conditions, levels of policy harmonization, ambitions of goals, and ways to punish free riders. Attempts to take into account the interests of countries with different levels of development and strength of climate policy, as well as willingness to introduce new restrictive measures, lead to weakening of the institutional structure and reduction of efficiency. However, some aspects of cooperation can still be developed to ensure the reduction of emissions, harmonization of standards being one of them
研究人员提出了“气候俱乐部”的概念,试图通过一组国家,最好是那些对全球温室气体排放负有更大责任的国家,采取更雄心勃勃的目标和限制性措施,包括碳定价,确保在实现巴黎目标方面取得进展。理论模型几乎不可能在实践中实施,因此人们试图制定考虑政治、经济和制度现实的俱乐部配置。在此基础上,提出了可以实际实施的俱乐部的第一个概念。它们在成员条件、政策协调程度、目标雄心和惩罚搭便车者的方式方面有所不同。试图考虑具有不同发展水平和气候政策实力的国家的利益,以及采取新的限制措施的意愿,导致体制结构的削弱和效率的降低。然而,仍可以在某些方面开展合作,以确保减少排放,标准的统一就是其中之一
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引用次数: 0
BRICS Sustainable Development Index: the Results 金砖国家可持续发展指数:成果
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-03
A. Sakharov, Ksenia Dorokhina
This article discusses the results of the study on the formation of the BRICS Sustainable Development Index. The authors describe the methodology of the index, the indicator selection process, and methodological problems and challenges, and also provide a detailed analysis of the dynamics of sustainable development goal (SDG) indicators for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in 2015–20. The results of the study indicate both the overall progress of the BRICS countries toward SDG implementation and the presence of negative trends in a number of areas and for some countries. For 53 of the 64 indicators selected for the analysis, positive trends were recorded, on average, across BRICS. Nevertheless, the index identified several negative trends across a number of issue areas for individual states and for the group as a whole. These trends include: an increase in the average prevalence of malnutrition, an increase in the number of people in need of treatment for tropical diseases, increasing pressure on water ecosystems in the BRICS countries amid a decrease in their area, a decrease in the share of research and development expenditures of gross national product (GDP), and a decline in biodiversity indicators.
本文讨论了金砖国家可持续发展指数形成的研究结果。作者描述了该指数的方法、指标选择过程、方法上的问题和挑战,并详细分析了2015-20年金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)可持续发展目标指标的动态。研究结果表明,金砖国家在落实可持续发展目标方面取得了总体进展,在一些领域和一些国家也存在负面趋势。在选择用于分析的64个指标中,有53个指标的金砖国家平均呈积极趋势。尽管如此,该指数在各个州和整个群体的一些问题领域发现了一些负面趋势。这些趋势包括:营养不良的平均患病率增加,需要治疗热带疾病的人数增加,金砖国家的水生态系统在面积减少的情况下面临的压力增加,研究和开发支出在国民生产总值中的份额下降,以及生物多样性指标下降。
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引用次数: 0
How Kazakhstani Multi-Vector Foreign Policy Works: Voting in UNGA Analysis 哈萨克斯坦多媒介外交政策如何运作:联合国大会分析中的投票
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-06
Roman A. Yuneman
The concept of multivectorism is the basis of the foreign policy strategy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Multivectorism is also the framework within which Kazakhstan carries out its foreign policy in international organizations and integrational institutions. However, the implementation of this aspect of its foreign policy within the UN General Assembly has not yet been studied. To examine the concept of multivectorism, the author analyzes Kazakhstan’s voting cohesion with Russia, China, the USA, Turkey, and Germany in the UNGA from 2007-2022. The author also studies Kazakhstan’s behavior in situations where it voted opposite the way these countries voted. This article analyzes, among other things, the voting cohesion of Kazakhstan and the other countries in question on particular topics, such as disarmament, decolonization, human rights, development issues, armed conflicts, etc., as well as Kazakhstan voting patterns on key resolutions relating to armed conflicts involving the Russian Federation. As a result of quantitative and qualitative analysis of more than 1300 resolutions, the author comes to the conclusion that the main “vector” of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is China. Not Russia, despite Russia formally enjoying the status of Kazakhstan’s declared key ally. Kazakhstan shares the highest voting cohesion with China (to a lesser extent with Russia, Turkey, and Germany, and only minimally with the United States). Moreover, when China and the other countries under examination vote in opposition to one another, Kazakhstan’s votes were more often in accordance with the Chinese position. The author argues that Kazakhstan also avoids explicit support for the Russian Federation in voting on resolutions related to armed conflicts involving Russia. This is further manifested in the Republic of Kazakhstan’s voting on resolutions related to the conflict in Ukraine. However, the reasons for the high level of voting cohesion between China and Kazakhstan in the UNGA require further research.
多媒介主义的概念是哈萨克斯坦共和国外交政策战略的基础。多媒介主义也是哈萨克斯坦在国际组织和一体化机构中执行外交政策的框架。然而,这方面的外交政策在联合国大会内的执行情况尚未得到研究。为了检验多向量主义的概念,作者分析了哈萨克斯坦与俄罗斯、中国、美国、土耳其和德国在2007-2022年联合国大会上的投票凝聚力。作者还研究了哈萨克斯坦在与这些国家投票相反的情况下的行为。除其他外,本文分析了哈萨克斯坦和其他有关国家在裁军、非殖民化、人权、发展问题、武装冲突等特定议题上的投票凝聚力,以及哈萨克斯坦在涉及俄罗斯联邦的武装冲突的关键决议上的投票模式。通过对1300多项决议的定量和定性分析,作者得出结论,哈萨克斯坦外交政策的主要“载体”是中国。不是俄罗斯,尽管俄罗斯正式享有哈萨克斯坦宣布的关键盟友的地位。哈萨克斯坦与中国的投票凝聚力最高(与俄罗斯、土耳其和德国的投票凝聚力较低,与美国的投票凝聚力最低)。此外,当中国和其他审议国相互投反对票时,哈萨克斯坦的投票更多地符合中国的立场。发件人认为,哈萨克斯坦也避免明确支持俄罗斯联邦对涉及俄罗斯的武装冲突的决议进行表决。这进一步表现在哈萨克斯坦共和国对有关乌克兰冲突的决议进行表决。然而,中国和哈萨克斯坦在联大投票中具有高度凝聚力的原因还需要进一步研究。
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引用次数: 0
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Reassessment of the Priorities Against the Background of Old Problems and New Challenges. Book Review: «The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Exploring New Horizons» 上海合作组织:在老问题和新挑战背景下重新评估工作重点。书评:《上海合作组织:开拓新视野》
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-10
R. Khalafyan
This review examines the results of the unique international study devoted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The project was carried out on the initiative of eminent Russian specialists and covers the period of the SCO’s formation, the search for new areas of cooperation, and promising fields of interaction among the participating countries. The authors (including lawyers and economists) assess the current state of this regional organization and its future, which allows us to form a quite complete understanding of the SCO and the emerging directions of its development. The monograph was produced by a reputable foreign publishing house, reflecting an attention to regionalization that is especially noticeable against the background of the slowing processes of legal regulation at the universal level in recent years. The monograph reveals the reasons for the states within the SCO to unite efforts for realization of their common interests, which are not limited to traditional cooperation in the field of security. The team of authors pays attention to the specifics of the legal systems of the member states and the relations between the countries, as well as the SCO’s successful responses to challenges in the field of labour and migration, energy, environmental protection, transport, and logistics links. Such an approach reflects the conditions of the national legal implementation of international obligations by SCO members. The main features of the Eurasian concept of human rights are formulated, the existence and significance of which is proclaimed. The study provides necessary diagrams, graphs, and tables. General scientific and special methods of cognition were used in this review to show the structure of the monograph, the individual conclusions of the authors, and proposals. The review offers conclusions about the gradual evolution of the SCO, the growth of the humanitarian component of its competence, and the existing contradictions between the potential of the organization and the results achieved.
这篇综述考察了专门针对上海合作组织的独特国际研究的结果。该项目是在俄罗斯知名专家的倡议下开展的,涵盖了上海合作组织成立期间、寻找新的合作领域以及参与国之间有希望的互动领域。作者(包括律师和经济学家)评估了这个地区组织的现状和未来,这使我们能够对上合组织及其新兴发展方向形成相当完整的了解。这本专著由一家声誉良好的外国出版社出版,反映了对区域化的关注,在近年来全球法律监管进程放缓的背景下,这一点尤为明显。该专著揭示了上海合作组织成员国为实现其共同利益而团结努力的原因,这些利益不仅仅局限于安全领域的传统合作。作者团队关注成员国法律制度的细节和国与国之间的关系,以及上海合作组织成功应对劳工和移民、能源、环境保护、运输和物流等领域的挑战。这种做法反映了上海合作组织成员国依法履行国际义务的条件。阐述了欧亚人权观的主要特点,并阐述了其存在和意义。该研究提供了必要的图表。这篇综述使用了一般的科学和特殊的认知方法来展示专著的结构、作者的个人结论和建议。审查报告就上海合作组织的逐步发展、其能力中人道主义部分的发展以及该组织的潜力与所取得的成果之间存在的矛盾得出了结论。
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引用次数: 0
G20 at the Critical Juncture. Indonesia’s 2022 Presidency: Internal and External Shocks, Risks of Power Rebalancing and Eventual Demise, Causes of Resilience and Re-Equilibrium 关键时刻的G20。印尼2022年总统任期:内部和外部冲击,权力再平衡和最终消亡的风险,恢复力和再平衡的原因
IF 0.9 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2023-01-02
M. Larionova
The 2022 Indonesian presidency was a critical juncture in the history of the Group of 20 (G20). Indonesia took over the presidency at a time when surging tensions between the U.S., China and Russiaimpeded concerted action by the G20 essential to secure sustainable and equitable recovery and long-term growth. Following the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine, the Group of 7 (G7) put immense pressure on the presidency to expel Russia from G20 activities. Emerging market countries wanted Russia to remain a member and regarded the pressure as an effort to enhance the G7’s dominance in the forum’s decision-making. Their choice was in favour of the G20, which can cooperate as an institute equally owned by emerging market and advanced countries, thus driving reform and restoring multilateralism. The G20 was deeply split. The presidency managed to save the agenda and ensured that the G20 remained a premier forum of cooperation between advanced and emerging economies in which the voice of the emerging economies at the negotiating table was strong and pluralism prevailed. This article analyses how the G20 survived the crisis activated by exogeneous and endogenous shocks in 2022 and whether and how it transformed in the course of this critical juncture. The article presents a qualitative case study of G20 dynamics in 2022, tracing interactions of the interdependent variables—actors, institutions, and agendas. The study applies a systemic process analysis and content analysis of the key actors’ narratives. The article starts with a review of the G20’s state-of play at the Indonesian presidency’s takeover from Italy and examines the new presidency’s agenda. It then outlines the main challenges the world and the G20 faced in early 2022, just before the eruption of the crisis. It goes on to explore the tensions within the G20, the roles played by the presidency, the G7, and the BRICS group formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The author focuses on the endeavor by Joko Widodo’s team to steer the G20 through the external pressures and internal confrontations, forge collective decisions on the presidency’s priorities, save the institution as a catalyst for global economic recovery, and advance an agenda that would respond to developing countries’ interests. It concludes by summing up variables affecting the G20’s performance and development in 2022 and the causes of its resilience.
2022年印尼担任主席是20国集团(G20)历史上的一个关键时刻。印尼接任总统之际,美国、中国和俄罗斯之间的紧张局势加剧,阻碍了20国集团采取一致行动,这对确保可持续、公平的复苏和长期增长至关重要。在乌克兰启动特别军事行动后,七国集团(G7)向总统施加了巨大压力,要求将俄罗斯驱逐出G20活动。新兴市场国家希望俄罗斯继续加入,并认为这种压力是为了增强七国集团在论坛决策中的主导地位。他们的选择有利于二十国集团,二十国集团可以作为一个由新兴市场国家和发达国家平等拥有的机构进行合作,从而推动改革和恢复多边主义。二十国集团内部存在严重分歧。主席设法挽救了议程,并确保二十国集团仍然是发达经济体和新兴经济体之间的首要合作论坛,在这个论坛中,新兴经济体在谈判桌上的发言权很强,多元化占主导地位。本文分析了二十国集团如何在2022年由外生和内生冲击引发的危机中幸存下来,以及在这一关键时刻它是否以及如何转变。本文对2022年二十国集团的动态进行了定性案例研究,追踪了相互依存的变量——行动者、机构和议程——的相互作用。本研究对主要参与者的叙述进行了系统的过程分析和内容分析。这篇文章首先回顾了20国集团在印尼总统从意大利手中接管时的表现,并审视了新总统的议程。然后,它概述了世界和二十国集团在2022年初危机爆发前面临的主要挑战。它还探讨了二十国集团内部的紧张局势,主席国、七国集团以及由巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非组成的金砖国家集团所扮演的角色。作者重点介绍了佐科·维多多团队努力引导二十国集团克服外部压力和内部对抗,就主席国的优先事项做出集体决定,拯救该机构作为全球经济复苏的催化剂,并推进一项符合发展中国家利益的议程。最后,总结了影响G20 2022年表现和发展的变量及其韧性的原因。
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Vestnik Mezhdunarodnykh Organizatsii-International Organisations Research Journal
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