{"title":"Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017","authors":"Miguel Ángel Mendoza González","doi":"10.29105/ensayos39.1-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Esta investigacion analiza con un enfoque poskeynesiano la sobre-sensibilidad y las asimetrias ante choques de ingreso del consumo privado y su desagregacion en bienes duraderos, semi-duraderos, no-duraderos y los servicios en Mexico para el periodo 1995-2017. Para estimar la sobre-sensibilidad se utilizan las metodologias de cointegracion de Johansen-Juselius y el metodo de estimacion FMOLS, sin sesgo de endogeneidad de Phillips y Hansen. Para las asimetrias se aplican las pruebas de Seo y Hansen - Seo de cointegracion, con regimenes multiples (cointegracion-threshold) y modelos TVECM de vectores de correccion de error, con regimenes multiples de Seo . Con los resultados se comprueba la existencia de sobre-sensibilidad del consumo privado y del consumo de la mayoria de los bienes por durabilidad (nacional e importado) y comportamientos asimetricos de regimen bajo, consistente con un escenario de crisis economica. Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017 ABSTRACT With a Postkeynesian approach, this research analyzes the over-sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks of private consumption and its unbundling into durable, semi-durable, non-durable goods and services in Mexico for the period 1995-2017. To estimate over-sensitivity to income, cointegration methodologies from Johansen-Juselius are used and the FMOLS estimation method without endogeneity bias of Phillips and Hansen. And, for the asymmetries, this study applies the tests of Seo and Hansen-Seo of cointegration with multiple regimes (threshold-cointegration) and threshold vector error correction model (threshold-VECM) with multiple regimes of Seo . The results show the existence of over-sensitivity of private consumption and durability for most of the goods (national and imported) and low-level asymmetric behaviors consistent with a scenario of economic crisis.","PeriodicalId":42950,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos-Revista de la Facultad de Educacion de Albacete","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ensayos-Revista de la Facultad de Educacion de Albacete","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos39.1-2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Esta investigacion analiza con un enfoque poskeynesiano la sobre-sensibilidad y las asimetrias ante choques de ingreso del consumo privado y su desagregacion en bienes duraderos, semi-duraderos, no-duraderos y los servicios en Mexico para el periodo 1995-2017. Para estimar la sobre-sensibilidad se utilizan las metodologias de cointegracion de Johansen-Juselius y el metodo de estimacion FMOLS, sin sesgo de endogeneidad de Phillips y Hansen. Para las asimetrias se aplican las pruebas de Seo y Hansen - Seo de cointegracion, con regimenes multiples (cointegracion-threshold) y modelos TVECM de vectores de correccion de error, con regimenes multiples de Seo . Con los resultados se comprueba la existencia de sobre-sensibilidad del consumo privado y del consumo de la mayoria de los bienes por durabilidad (nacional e importado) y comportamientos asimetricos de regimen bajo, consistente con un escenario de crisis economica. Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017 ABSTRACT With a Postkeynesian approach, this research analyzes the over-sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks of private consumption and its unbundling into durable, semi-durable, non-durable goods and services in Mexico for the period 1995-2017. To estimate over-sensitivity to income, cointegration methodologies from Johansen-Juselius are used and the FMOLS estimation method without endogeneity bias of Phillips and Hansen. And, for the asymmetries, this study applies the tests of Seo and Hansen-Seo of cointegration with multiple regimes (threshold-cointegration) and threshold vector error correction model (threshold-VECM) with multiple regimes of Seo . The results show the existence of over-sensitivity of private consumption and durability for most of the goods (national and imported) and low-level asymmetric behaviors consistent with a scenario of economic crisis.