{"title":"Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)","authors":"Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"11 1","pages":"79-104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.
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